Indian Economy

[SKC]

Bjp needa these schemes to so that, they don't lose ground to congress and regional parties. 1500rs a month to very specific bracket of women is not a bad policy, it can even be good. I have posted here about female labour participation and how women don't have disposable income of their own, which is pretty bad for internal consumption of our country.

Our population is like that only. We don't want anything except free money, bijli, pani, khana, daaru, dava, etc etc.

 

[arjuntank]

View: https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1897298263579201741

 

[Nibbler]

what factors you have considered?

simple balance sheet math

refined petroleum exports are like ~$50b to ~$150b in crude oil imports. oil is one of the few things where the extracting raw material is actually more value add than processing it.

thats why when people tall about being oil rich nobody is talin about the countries with a lot of refinerys.

 

[Hari Sud]

Trump’s onslaught is definitely going to impact Indian economy that too negatively. The most impact will be on exports.

There is another school of thought that 20% import Tariffs on China exports to US will have a positive impact on India. That is very unlikely because all this chaos of Tariffs, which Trump has created is to bring back manufacturing from China back to America. This 20% tariff together with 10% done earlier in Trump’s first term is too much for any export oriented country to withstand. Businesses instead of placing orders in China will think of placing orders within America.

India is not in scheme of things of Trump. He is unlikely encourage manufacturing to relocate to India.

Hence there is hard time ahead for India.

 

[haldilal]

Ya'll what we need the most now, rail factories. It even has Industrial robots and automated parts carrier robots, an constrast to the Chennai one.


View: https://x.com/haldilal/status/1897565315053060508

 

[Anants]

this time, too many trump induced variables are beyond my capacity to "calculate", that's why i relied of previous round of trump tariffs + delta to get to a rough baseline in that previous post of mine.

i guess we will have to wait for professional experts to do these calculations.

for example : let's take one variable. let's say he indeed goes ahead with tariffs on canada and mexico. tariff is paid by importer, which is ultimately paid by the consumer. usually this sort of "tax" mopup removes excess cash from the system into gormint coffers. traditional logic dictates, removing excess cash in the system reduces inflation. dollar strengthening/weakening abroad depends on how much dollar is available abroad. will his treasury department release enough USD to keep a balance outside of U.S? i don't know.

the guy is not just going after one variable, he is cutting another source of USD distribution channel i.e NGO grants. if that money too for now is not coming into the market. what impact will that have? i don't know.


for now, i am of the view that this is the best approach for us regular folks, till something actually happens.
View attachment 26812

Look I will give you one constant. US president only remember to reach out to India at the end of term. It shall be same this time. Before that it shall be usual blow hot or blow cold but this time with Trump eshtyle. Trump is not letting go of levers wrt India - that why package was immediately released to Pakistan (maybe it was quid pro for interested person surrender to US - but I think package was for lever maintenance)

 

[Spacemarine]

Seems like US economy will have negative GDP growth this quarter some estimates are closing into -2% of GDP.
This will definitely hurt world economy even more.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

given all things :- Trump tariffs, global environment, our own domestic conditions. what is the reasonable % of growth we can expect in Fn-Year 2025-26 ?

 

[ezsasa]

given all things :- Trump tariffs, global environment, our own domestic conditions. what is the reasonable % of growth we can expect in Fn-Year 2025-26 ?

world has become too volatile to predict even six months from now.
this is another of those moments in india's post-liberalisation history, where we should be glad that Indian economy(GDP estimate calculation) is primarily domestic consumption and service export driven.

on the bright side, because of supply chain re-orientation post chini virus, even if eurotards continue on their suicidal mission towards WW3, it's relatively easier now for global systems to isolate european region/sub-regions from causing disruptions globally.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

world has become too volatile to predict even six months from now.
this is another of those moments in india's post-liberalisation history, where we should be glad that Indian economy(GDP estimate calculation) is primarily domestic consumption and service export driven.

on the bright side, because of supply chain re-orientation post chini virus, even if eurotards continue on their suicidal mission towards WW3, it's relatively easier now for global systems to isolate european region/sub-regions from causing disruptions globally.

it would be funny to hear how euros going to do their re-armament , German economy has been in decline since 2022, France doesn't have same industrial base as krauts and uk is in shambles since last decade.
IMO they aren't gonna do shit, they will wait till Ukraine caves in to ruskies and gives up territory, then after like 2 years they will forget about it.

 

[Spacemarine]

given all things :- Trump tariffs, global environment, our own domestic conditions. what is the reasonable % of growth we can expect in Fn-Year 2025-26 ?

Fcked need to increase CAPEX with less regulations, decrease interest rates to stay in 5+ GDP territory, lax loan terms… hopefully Modi Govt is top of that

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Fcked need to increase CAPEX with less regulations, decrease interest rates to stay in 5+ GDP territory, lax loan terms… hopefully Modi Govt is top of that

folks have been talking about lack of capex from pvt sector since forever, govt capex can only go so far. leaderji's record with debloating babus have been mixed bag.

India's private sector capex declines to 3-year low of 11.2% in FY24

Analysts predict that this downward trend is likely to continue into fiscal year 2025, with private sector investments potentially dropping below 11% of GDP. The overall investment rate for FY25 has also been projected to decrease to 31.1%, as indicated by the second advance estimates for the year.

www.businesstoday.in

 

[Spacemarine]

folks have been talking about lack of capex from pvt sector since forever, govt capex can only go so far. leaderji's record with debloating babus have been mixed bag.

Nothing happens without babuverse, babus can literally kill any scheme and fck elections either Modi needs to become bahanji to curtail the scourges which can work max for few years after that they kill party itself or work with them to atleast keep the growth engine running

 

[ezsasa]

folks have been talking about lack of capex from pvt sector since forever, govt capex can only go so far. leaderji's record with debloating babus have been mixed bag.

India's private sector capex declines to 3-year low of 11.2% in FY24

Analysts predict that this downward trend is likely to continue into fiscal year 2025, with private sector investments potentially dropping below 11% of GDP. The overall investment rate for FY25 has also been projected to decrease to 31.1%, as indicated by the second advance estimates for the year.

www.businesstoday.in

don't go by their headlines, our business news papers are not in the business of giving us facts, they are in the business of generating clicks and speculations.

either open a calculator and do your own calculations or go to the source, usually you will find that the actual numbers are a few thousand crores difference which is with in cyclical margins, underneath the alarmist headlines. when ever they realise that giving the actual numbers does not generate the clicks, they resort to percentages.

first rule about Indian media, is that they don't know $hit. these fellows are mass comm. graduates not subject matter experts. and worse, all of them have been trained by marxist academics, so dogma distribution is a constant theme in their business.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Nothing happens without babuverse, babus can literally kill any scheme and fck elections either Modi needs to become bahanji to curtail the scourges which can work max for few years after that they kill party itself or work with them to atleast keep the growth engine running

modi's range here is limited, he can whip afsars close to him or those work directly with central gov, but things get muddy when you go down the line, babus at these levels are usually the one who create the most deadweight loss. Stuff like acquiring land, getting some permits, essential services, utilities : these things are in leadeji' domain to control.

 

[Prasad]

Nothing happens without babuverse, babus can literally kill any scheme and fck elections either Modi needs to become bahanji to curtail the scourges which can work max for few years after that they kill party itself or work with them to atleast keep the growth engine running

You are partly true.
Most politicians don't have knowledge of law & the IAS cadre are the principal people behind these PM, CM's and other ministers making sure the tick boxes are checked before any law of formulated or changed.
Politicians reliance on IAS is absolute, there is no getting around it.

But, in reality this is not how it works at PMO or CMO.
The cabinet secretary is literally the 3rd or 4th most powerful person in India, even ahead of CJI.
And in Modi's case, he relies on his cabinet secretary to do his bidding and control the other IAS cadre working with him.
Cabinet secretaries power is absolute and all encompassing.

Not just Modi, most CM;s have this one hound dog of IAS next to them to do their bidding.

 

[Spacemarine]

modi's range here is limited, he can whip afsars close to him or those work directly with central gov, but things get muddy when you go down the line, babus at these levels are usually the one who create the most deadweight loss. Stuff like acquiring land, getting some permits, essential services, utilities : these things are in leadeji' domain to control.

Other than policy formation Govt execution is entirely based on babudoms, centre can send some loyal babus of their own to oversee but remember none of them are frugal enough to actually oversee their state counterparts some audits are thr but it works on surface only.

Babus are enabled too much at BJp state level now its proving to be fatal the way they are even showing claws to MLAs.

Its like a full closed loop now nothing can happen without them.

Modi put too much emphasis on shared vision of developing India when majority of babus already have one step outside and all they are looking for is personal portfolios.

I think some course corrections might come but difficult in this era to go full retard this will kill growth.

All I am saying nothing is in Modi control when it comes to execution of policies … few carrots and restricted danda is how things were progressing and likely to progress.

Until the UPSC system is not reformed majority of babus Come from famous mughal history scoring subjects.

I tried to go through that way but thought better not to go this route otherwise will end of with net negative karma …

Only way is to keep the growth rate engine by keeping babus in good terms and then Yogi once become PM with BJP majority a decade ago does a DOGE… 2029 looks like tough for Modi

 

[ezsasa]

Other than policy formation Govt execution is entirely based on babudoms, centre can send some loyal babus of their own to oversee but remember none of them are frugal enough to actually oversee their state counterparts some audits are thr but it works on surface only.

Babus are enabled too much at BJp state level now its proving to be fatal the way they are even showing claws to MLAs.

Its like a full closed loop now nothing can happen without them.

Modi put too much emphasis on shared vision of developing India when majority of babus already have one step outside and all they are looking for is personal portfolios.

I think some course corrections might come but difficult in this era to go full retard this will kill growth.

All I am saying nothing is in Modi control when it comes to execution of policies … few carrots and restricted danda is how things were progressing and likely to progress.

Until the UPSC system is not reformed majority of babus Come from famous mughal history scoring subjects.

I tried to go through that way but thought better not to go this route otherwise will end of with net negative karma …

Only way is to keep the growth rate engine by keeping babus in good terms and then Yogi once become PM with BJP majority a decade ago does a DOGE… 2029 looks like tough for Modi

i never got this argument.

if not babus, who?
is there an assumption that MLA/MPs should sit in the office all day to move files and write policies with their own hand?

 

[ezsasa]

first rule about Indian media, is that they don't know $hit. these fellows are mass comm. graduates not subject matter experts. and worse, all of them have been trained by marxist academics, so dogma distribution is a constant theme in their business.

dogma distribution, in this case would be that even if the actual numbers have improved 100% or more in medium to long term, their vocational training instructs them to ensure they point out the notional .5% that is supposedly not been achieved. so naturally public is focusses on the "missing .5%" and gets anxious, than what has been achieved.

this is a constant theme we the public are subjected to. a lot of people seem to take it for granted, it need not be, we the public deserve better.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

dogma distribution, in this case would be that even if the actual numbers have improved 100% or more in medium to long term, their vocational training instructs them to ensure they point out the notional .5% that is supposedly not been achieved. so naturally public is focusses on the "missing .5%" and gets anxious, than what has been achieved.

this is a constant theme we the public are subjected to. a lot of people seem to this is the norm, it need not be, we the public deserve better.

IMO pillar of democracy is a dogshit concept, each democracy is different from another, where each supposed pillar works differently and has different power/influence on overall political system. Democracy in India is different from that in USA, which is different from what in France.

Media is the most easy to compromise pillar out of all, and yet leftoids would make you believe as if its some divine concept handed down to masses by gods.