Waqf bill will be passed in winter session of parliament as per Amit shah.
Since bhajeepav is likely to lose 3 state election in a row (haryana,mh, j and k) , will it affect passing of the bill?
So here are the numbers :
BhajeePav and alliance holds 120 of 245 seats, with 13 remaining vacant, meaning BhajeePav have 120 of 232.
Of the Vacant ones, 4 belongs to J&K, 1 to WB, 1 to Sikkim, 3 to AP and the rest 4 are all Presidential Nomination.
Rajya Sabha isnt Lok Sabha, where entire parliament is re-composed based on elections. Rajya Sabha has staggered terms, where each year or two a certain # of RS MPs lose their seats and they are filled by the state govt. on a proportionate represenation basis to the Vidhan Sabha ( meaning if ur party has 33% seats in Vidhan Sabha, you get to send 33% of the Rajya Sabha MPs from your state's quota, regardless of whether you won election or came last, and all the seats you send are not in one shot after VS elections, its staggered terms over the next 5 years, etc).
So its fairly complicated a procedure. But taking a quick look, there are no Rajya Sabha seats that are being vacated before the end of this year. Wiki says the next set of Rajya Sabha seat recycling will be in June 2025, with 2 seats from Assam being recycled and then in July about 6 seats of Tamilakkam gets recycled.
So long story short, i am 99% sure if BJP can pass the bill in Lok Sabha, they can pass the bill in Rajya Sabha this winter, even if J&K assembly results in all 4 seats going to Congoons, because 4 Presidential nominations will all be BJP votes and since all the vacant AP seats are also NDA seats, as they are TDP seats, it means worst case scenario, NDA in Rajya Sabha goes from current 120 of 232 to 127 of 245, which is still majority.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
