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8 months before Karnataka election, I'd posted that BJP has lost the support of the middle class in the state, which combined with the outsized weight the class carries in influencing opinion across the state alongside the feeling of resentment across multiple castes, would take BJP down comprehensively.
Today I think we have roughly reached the state where BJP has lost its previously impregnable bastion across the entire country.
To set the context of how monumental this is, this did not happen even with the drubbing in 2009 elections. Practically, This was unthinkable even 3 months back. Right wing independent reporters and political analysts will pick this story up over the course of the next 6-12 months as the trends crystalize. By then there will be no way to reverse course for the ruling party.
This is being led by a near evisceration of BJPs credibility across key points of middle class interest: prices, taxes, corruption, joblessness. Easiest way to judge the extent and depth of this decline is to check the levels of engagement with pro BJP messaging across whatsapp. Far fewer people are accepting BJP's stand uncritically and this posits problems. A small loyal base does still exist, but the bulk is moving away, and moving away rapidly. Another way to judge is to look at the critical commentary from business class - pretty much unheard of in the last 10 years.
This anger and disenchantment will be evident as the next phase of controversies emerge and bjp IT cell seeks out public support.
Why is this happening? As with everything, it's a mix and explanations will vary as per the biases of the person. For me, it's probably 4 told.
A. The taxes: there is seething anger against Nirmala. Visceral Hatred is probably the better word. One has to understand perception and hope matters just as much as reality and in here, she has painted herself in the same colors as the state "mafia" of the 70s and 80s, seeking to loot middle class, to prevent the growth of the same. The sheer desperation of the middle class can be judged by the extraordinary shift from FDs and safe asset classes to speculative investing. Middle class is desperate to find ways to make money that beats inflation, and is moving away from instruments that they feel no longer cover for inflationary aspects. It's sort of reaching a tinderbox status, it will take probably one or two wrong moves to set off massive protests by the middle class.
B. The loss of credibility wrt corruption. If the middle class is angry with taxes, the entire country, across class and castes, are furious with the absolute eruption of corruption cases, particularly in entrance exams. NEET, UPSC and other exams were upto this point considered bereft of corruption. Now people, for the first time, have come to realise that corruption exists even in these hallowed institutions, which often were the sole source of an escape from poverty to middle and upper middle class life. This is actually what clued me in, and I was stunned to see the near collapse of positive engagement to govt and BJP IT cell messaging. People simply weren't buying the explanations, and even staunch proponents were angry and hurt. What hurt bjp more was the hemming and hawing by the government before finally taking action. Then you have the BJP washing machine. Became pretty obvious and honestly, far too in your face that this was political expediency at its absolute worst. BJP probably would have gotten away with it if they'd kept it to a minimum necessary, but with the wholesale white washing, BJP became essentially the same as any other political party. This meant popularity and support would become more focused on whether BJP was backing up their points of interest and pov, and not on an ideology that BJP seemed to have no problem diluting for political gain.
C. The refusal of Modi to speak. In 2019, after the attack on CRPF convoy, Modi went infront of the country, and said to a wounded country, that we will hit back. That was backed up with action on ground. People misplace why this mattered so much in the election. My theory is this, in a time of national crisis, on a topic that deeply resonated with the people, The PM, understood the mood and spoke to them clearly, Directly. Over the last year this has been missing, and missing extraordinarily. Everytime a major incident has happened, NEET corruption, Manipur violence, joblessness, Modi has been nowhere, to the extent that people no longer trust him to understand their feelings, their fears and pain. This is driving Rahul Gandhi's revival as well, as with Modi, whenever the people need someone whom they can latch onto, modi didn't deliver, he was nowhere. Combined with the corruption charges, people by and large do not feel there is much difference between BJP and congress - and it dents a core point of differentiation between the two sides in the voter psyche
D. The proliferation of goons in BJP. As with any successful political party, bad elements of the society tend to gravitate towards the ruling party. As long as they stay in sidelines, people are by and large willing to tolerate and look the other way. Brij bhushan scandal might have saved one seat for BJP, but it meant they weakened their natural strong position. Even now with the Olympics, as time goes on, what people will remember is BJP supported and backed Brij over the Olympian. Quite a way to hack at your own feet.
Within opposition circles, there used to be a fear that removing BJP from power would be a colossal undertaking even in 2029. Now there is an air of anticipation. Instead of a bang, BJP's third term could very well go out with a whimper and with that, the legacy of the last 10 years. The utter timid behaviour over the past year will come to haunt BJP in the coming elections.
