Indo-China Border & LAC

[mist_consecutive]

Heh, not really. They will finger us again. Remember how they 'disengaged' from Doklam? Only to turn up at Galwan valley? Chinkus have been very clear in their objectives since the formation of ccpstan - it is us, who kept believing in 'muh hindi chini bhai bhai', 'muh united global south against ebhil west' etc.

Chinese are notoriously known for their 2-turn. In 1962 something similar happened (disengagement), only for them to attack back in Nov.

Chinese were arrogant towards India during their friend biden era, maybe hedging their bets for possible trump era.

Ukraine war has made the Chinese aware (reinforced) of strategic importance of India

For economic revival of china they need Indian market.

And above all it seems we have agreed to their terms of keeping border issues at its appropriate place and turn the page.


How else to justify jhoola diplomacy and upcoming photo-op during brics meet.
Sause - rumint

Bold, LOL they don't need India at all. While its good to not have India as an "active" enemy, and be able to sell shit to Indian market, they don't really have any dependency on us.

You cant get everything. Loose one gain one.
Both US & china are enemy to India. But US more dangerous than china. & on china front we already on toes.

I will argue China is far more dangerous than USA. All the countries USA has influenced (not colonialised forcefully through military, eg., Iraq) have turned out to economically better-off and turned into some kind of cultural or economic powerhouse, or both.

All the countries China has influenced has gone to dogs. Literally. Economy crashed, militarily and domestically handicapped in multiple ways, became complete banana republics.

Also, for our context -

What USA wants - Remove far-right govt, install USA-friendly govt, sell us surplus military hardware, ready to grow our MIL by shifting their supply lines to India, and have military bases in Indian subcontinent.

What China wants - Remove far-right govt, install China-friendly govt, cripple us with economic dependency on them (kill domestic industry), start & increase multiple seperatist movements inside India to break us into multiple pieces like Myanmar, grab our territories and finally kill the republic of India.

Choose the lesser evil.

It will be devastating for the pak army once PLA disengages and deinduct forces from standoff point.

PLA ain't going back. They will just start patrolling.

 

[shade2]

Yes very safe bro
Now expect Chinese apps flooding oor phones and our dehati janta posting chapri things on it and compromising our data
We too are incapable of building our own domestic alternatives
Now we can expect Chinese ev flooding our markets thus destroying all the efforts made by domestic industry to gain foothold as most of them will buy CKD or SKD like olectra etc.

We can but they have first mover's advantage and Govt can't ban the existing burger platforms.

btw don't pre-emptively wail and break bangles, we can all do widhwa vilaap together once the other effects of this "deal" come out

 

[hurrians]

Bold, LOL they don't need India at all. While its good to not have India as an "active" enemy, and be able to sell shit to Indian market, they don't really have any dependency on us.

What made them agree to the present agreement then?

 

[jaijaganath]

What made them agree to the present agreement then?

Practically they didn't gain much from this conflict except depsang and demchok most issues were solved
There is no significant advantage at present status for them to keep up deployment and push money in this sector
They have much more bigger goals to score than depsang
Most importantly they have tested our leadership our capabilities and the extent we can go inthe sector
They may have larger military goals maybe Taiwan or may be AP
Infact govt should be more vigilant for not letting happen galwan 2.0 somewhere else

 

[shade2]

Practically they didn't gain much from this conflict except depsang and demchok most issues were solved
There is no significant advantage at present status for them to keep up deployment and push money in this sector
They have much more bigger goals to score than depsang
Most importantly they have tested our leadership our capabilities and the extent we can go inthe sector
They may have larger military goals maybe Taiwan or may be AP
Infact govt should be more vigilant for not letting happen galwan 2.0 somewhere else

It's either AP or it's HP/UK bordering areas next, I bet, Gobi must not drink the Kool-Aid Nariyal Paani and stay vigilant

 

[mist_consecutive]

Found this "sutro se pata chala hai" article by Snehesh

Depsang 'resolved', patrolling to 'agreed perceived LAC'. What India & China have agreed on

Immediate withdrawal of troops deployed along LAC unlikely, it is learnt. Thaw in ties could also set stage for Modi-Xi meet on sidelines of BRICS summit in Russia later this week.

theprint.in

======================================================================

Explaining modalities that have been worked out, sources said the main issue related to Depsang Plains has been resolved. Chinese troops will pull back to their earlier positions and not block Indian troops from the bottleneck area as they have been doing since 2020, it is learnt. A few years before 2020, the Chinese were stopping Indian troops from an area called the “Y junction”, which was ahead of the bottleneck.

Asked about Demchok, another controversial area, sources said the MEA announced resumption of patrolling in all areas.

It was not immediately known if Indian troops will now patrol Charding La pass as was done before 2020.

Sources also said a tent erected by the Chinese after the standoff in 2020 had been removed.

In all other locations, where disengagement was achieved earlier and buffer zones were created–Northern banks of Pangong Tso, Galwan, Hot Springs and Gogra–patrolling would be resumed by both sides.

=======================================================================

So it's not a complete surrender from our side.

What made them agree to the present agreement then?

----------------------------------------------------------

Okay, let me tell you guys what exactly has happened.

China attacked us in 2020 as an attempt to salami-slice our territory and avenge the humiliation we handed them at Doklam.
Our intensity of response and resolve to protect our territory was something they didn't ancipate. We literally matched them man-to-man, even out-manuevering and out-smarting them sometimes.

So they changed their plans. They held their grounds instead and started creating infrastructure at break-neck speed. In the last 4 years since 2020, they have created an unbelievable amount of military facilities, roads, cities and power infrastructure.

Why ? Two main reasons -

• An assertive right-wing govt. is not eternal in a democracy. They will get their chance today or tomorrow. They plan for 100 - years ahead. When they smell weakness, they will attack again.
  
  
• It provides a guarantee we won't be able to attack them (or if we do, won't succeed) in case China is busy elsewhere (attacking Taiwan, or engaged with USA). Because at last, India is an formidable military power. It might not be able to defeat China, but will be a significant nuisance if kept unchecked.
  
  In the last decade, we finally became militarily capable enough to defeat Pakistan, and we are so confident that we stopped comparing ourselves to it and started comparing us with China. Result ? China started arming Pakistan again to become an effective counterweight against us.

So how does all of it fits in the disengagement now ?

Well, in the last 4 years, China has successfully completed crucial military infrastructure across LAC, especially Ladakh sector, touching almost all sectors in Ladakh. We have also done the same, but we still lag behind them by almost 30-40%.

So that means, in future if they want to continue their military campain, they can do it effortlessly, even at a very very short notice.

Now, the disengagement agreement must have included clause of no further military development along border areas (which our retarted diplomats would sign gleefully), but hurts us because we cannot develop equivalent military infrasturcture to match the Chinese.

 

[mist_consecutive]

In fact, I am ready to bet by left nut China will start another border issue by next year if not this winter itself.

 

[hurrians]

.Russia will surely want China India Bhai Bhai so would have asked to turn the page
. escalation matrix increased, India improved infra at border, war gamed with usa right at LAC , tested lot of missiles, changed the conflict from purely land domain skirmish , more CAPs ,maritime patrols even near South china sea, signed lot of foundational agreement with usa, armed some nations neighbouring china, did op snow leopard
.changed rules of engagement at lac , permission to fire
.did digital strike on apps (which shielded their real trade and made them worry about disruption of trade that really mattered)
.Indian market - china doesn't want to loose


""China and India, the two largest developing countries in the world, are facing a surge in demand in people-to-people exchanges," Dai Yonghong, director of Institute of Area and International Studies, Shenzhen University, told the Global Times on Thursday. "Regrettably, such a demand has been suppressed by the Indian authority's visa restrictions.""

Mandarin for - please let me do business

Wary responses to India's 'softening' on obstructing visa for Chinese citizens - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/WTFd4Hdy3o4?si=R6AZQ8ImwSMhyQc3

Clutterji wearing his LAC expert hat tonight along with Snehesh Alex Philip in a surprisingly engaging discussion on the recent agreement on the LAC. It's return to status quo ante is their unanimous declaration. No word however on whether we'd be able to continue building infrastructure there & moreover this is a disengagement not a de escalation.

 

[crazywithmath]

View: https://twitter.com/VatsRishap/status/1848414050469994712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

 

[MasterChief]

In fact, I am ready to bet by left nut China will start another border issue by next year if not this winter itself.

I think both will keep developing infra on the rear.. likr Z Morh ..Zojila tunnels.. while suspending work near the LAC..
I think this is more to do about the increasing American pressure via the phillipines, where Phillipines seems to be going the Ukraine way..

 

[MasterChief]

In fact, I am ready to bet by left nut China will start another border issue by next year if not this winter itself.

I think both will keep developing infra on the rear.. likr Z Morh ..Zojila tunnels.. while suspending work near the LAC..
I think this is more to do about the increasing American pressure via the phillipines, where Phillipines seems to be going the Ukraine way..
America is alrrady deployimg long range cruise missiles [Typhon] capable of hitting China east coast in Phillipines..

 

[hurrians]

Is it a quid pro quid in arunachal?

http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/114438836.cms

The terms of present agreement as enumerated in the article could have been agreed to long ago , so there is something on which disagreement was there.

 

[hurrians]

"The patrolling agreement is also a win for the Chinese PLA as India had blocked Chinese patrols since the 2020 in some other some sectors along the LAC. This will be clarified by both the sides in coming days."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/hectic-negotiations-led-to-restoration-of-patrolling-rights-101729560758271.html

 

[samsaptaka]

Something tells me this agreement is a defeat for us, trade and import of cheap chinka goods given higher priority over actual border security. I fully expect babus to now declare chinka threat over and go back to relax mode thus enabling chinka to again rinse & repeat the same salami slicing tactic.

 

[TopWatcher]

Anyhow enemy will remain always enemy. China will always come back. We need to be on toes. I think govt know this and already we developed lot of infra at china border.

Still question remains, why china accepted this?? Keeping forces on border not a big thing for china.

 

[hurrians]

"The Chinese have yet to release their statement on this understanding, and we have to recognise that China is not going to roll back its land grabs in Depsang and Demchok," Chellaney said.

"What this new patrolling arrangement is, only time will tell, because details keep out slowly, as they did in the case of the buffer zone arrangements," he added.


According to Chellaney, three things are required to end a standoff -- disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction of rival forces.


"Today, what has been announced by the Indian side only relates to the first step, disengagement of rival forces. The second and third steps would be very difficult because China has created permanent new warfare-related infrastructure along the India frontier," Chellaney said.

"A return to status quo ante, both in terms of how the border looked before April 2020 or how the territorial control existed along the Ladakh frontier before April 2020 when China made its land grabs on Indian territory, is not coming back," he added.


According to Lt General Hasnain

He said the announcement by the government is to prepare a ground for a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Kazan on Tuesday.

"There is some positivity in the backdrop behind it (potential meeting). That is about all," he said.

Can India trust China amid talks over disengagement along LAC? What experts say

Experts suggest that while this is a significant step in diffusing tensions between the two countries, India should be cautious about China's motives.

www.indiatoday.in

 

[TopWatcher]

A return to status quo ante, both in terms of how the border looked before April 2020 or how the territorial control existed along the Ladakh frontier before April 2020 when China made its land grabs on Indian territory, is not coming back," he added.

Than what we accepted ?

 

[altruistRor]

Chinese are notoriously known for their 2-turn. In 1962 something similar happened (disengagement), only for them to attack back in Nov.



Bold, LOL they don't need India at all. While its good to not have India as an "active" enemy, and be able to sell shit to Indian market, they don't really have any dependency on us.



I will argue China is far more dangerous than USA. All the countries USA has influenced (not colonialised forcefully through military, eg., Iraq) have turned out to economically better-off and turned into some kind of cultural or economic powerhouse, or both.

All the countries China has influenced has gone to dogs. Literally. Economy crashed, militarily and domestically handicapped in multiple ways, became complete banana republics.

Also, for our context -

What USA wants - Remove far-right govt, install USA-friendly govt, sell us surplus military hardware, ready to grow our MIL by shifting their supply lines to India, and have military bases in Indian subcontinent.

What China wants - Remove far-right govt, install China-friendly govt, cripple us with economic dependency on them (kill domestic industry), start & increase multiple seperatist movements inside India to break us into multiple pieces like Myanmar, grab our territories and finally kill the republic of India.

Choose the lesser evil.



PLA ain't going back. They will just start patrolling.

How smartly the biggest threat that US poses to India has been evaded. The cultural derogation of India, something which China avoids.

Most absurd laws passed and norms followed by the GoI like LGBTQ and mainstreaming it, adultery laws, women in forces, and several upcoming laws are bcoz of US pressure.

Land can be taken back- borders can be altered, but culture and sanity once lost, can not be brought back.

turned into some kind of cultural or economic powerhouse, or both.

This has to be the biggest joke of the millennia. From cultural pov, Powerhouse only in the terms of dismantling it.

 

[Viper316]

In fact, I am ready to bet by left nut China will start another border issue by next year if not this winter itself.

Imho, We should have waited untill elections get over. Expect a pro India stand from Trump administration.