Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

[randombully]

Now half the US economic numbers to get real economically relevant numbers in terms of economic power.
Because the 'deadweight' in terms of exerting economic power is your property sector . Because land value doesnt contribute an iota in terms of economic influence over others.
Chinese economic growth is 'stagnated' currently because Chinese property market is stagnant/contracting.
The two main driver of US economic wealth addition is US property sector and stock markets.

So the US going from 25 trillion to 30 trillion in the last 4-5 years means very little in terms of actual economic gap with China - the only economic metrics that matter in terms of economic power struggle, is your non real estate sectors - aka agriculture, manufacturing and certain types of services.

In THAT, the gap is much closer and China is gaining ground, which is why in economic power struggle terms, China is the one that is less affected than USA is in this tariff wars.

This, US economy is highly inflated due to stock market, land sector and currency manipulation.
US gov. Can't really use the this sector for its budget.

In actual economic output, China has surpassed US, especially if you apply "bang for buck" factor.

Economic Quality of life or US citizens is still in decline even with economy increasing.
And While slow growth in recent years, but economic quality of life is still increased in china.

Current US economy is highly inflated.
While chinese economy is somewhat inflated in dollar terms, but using Purchasing power parity, chinese economy is still overall undervalued.

 

[deathmonger]

One more inforgraphic should have been there!
India's GDP per capita vs Global Average.
Nominal:
View attachment 27154
View attachment 27155

PPP:
View attachment 27157
View attachment 27158

India is going to remain mere a middle income country even at its peak in 2050s like USSR was in its time.

Note: World Average may not be accurate as I have copied GDP per capita for countries from previous years where projections were not available from WEO report, I have skipped the unpreditable economies where there is no data since 2021.

One factor - USSR was never the most populous country in the world with a population more than both Americas and Europe combined.

By 2050 we should look to be at 0.8+ HDI, 12000+ pci USD (in 2025 USD). That across 1.6 billion is very powerful.

And mind you, that population unlike the current Chinese population won't be handicapped due to lack of English. So that population can use existing western infrastructure to project soft power.

The dominant narrative on English language internet will be India's. Rn while there are lot's of Indians on the net even now, they aren't as "refined" as westerners. In 2050 that won't be the case.

 

[deathmonger]

UBS data covers it upto end of century.


I will check but they aren't considered reliable. PRC itself though projects a slow growth of itself now.

IMF anyway projects PRC overtaking US which has been delayed several times.

PRC average age is higher than USA and fertility rate lower than Japan and those are first world countries.

That one child policy is making its effects felt.

Which is good in a way.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

This, US economy is highly inflated due to stock market, land sector and currency manipulation.
US gov. Can't really use the this sector for its budget.

In actual economic output, China has surpassed US, especially if you apply "bang for buck" factor.

Economic Quality of life or US citizens is still in decline even with economy increasing.
And While slow growth in recent years, but economic quality of life is still increased in china.

Current US economy is highly inflated.
While chinese economy is somewhat inflated in dollar terms, but using Purchasing power parity, chinese economy is still overall undervalued.

bang for buck factor, aka PPP wealth, is FAR MORE RELEVANT for Chinese power projection than it is for Indian. For simple reason that China has near complete control of its industrial supply chains.

So remember, when people say 'so what India's PPP is 10,000 USD, we still buy stuff on the international market in real dollar terms so the 2500 real gdp per capita is more relevant ?'
Its completely true.
But except for raw minerals and raw resources, China doesnt buy jack shit from overseas. It makes its own. So how expensive Chinese J20 is, is based off of Chinese PPP value in reality, while our 'how expensive is Rafale' is still based on real gdp value - coz India has to pay France real USD to buy Rafale. China doesnt pay anyone any USD to buy J20, it makes its own by paying its people to make it. So in economic + military power terms, China is FAAAAAAAAAAR closer to USA than we are, because China is nearly completely in control of its industrial supply chain, so it only pays in PPP terms for its military.

 

[deathmonger]

bang for buck factor, aka PPP wealth, is FAR MORE RELEVANT for Chinese power projection than it is for Indian. For simple reason that China has near complete control of its industrial supply chains.

So remember, when people say 'so what India's PPP is 10,000 USD, we still buy stuff on the international market in real dollar terms so the 2500 real gdp per capita is more relevant ?'
Its completely true.
But except for raw minerals and raw resources, China doesnt buy jack shit from overseas. It makes its own. So how expensive Chinese J20 is, is based off of Chinese PPP value in reality, while our 'how expensive is Rafale' is still based on real gdp value - coz India has to pay France real USD to buy Rafale. China doesnt pay anyone any USD to buy J20, it makes its own by paying its people to make it. So in economic + military power terms, China is FAAAAAAAAAAR closer to USA than we are, because China is nearly completely in control of its industrial supply chain, so it only pays in PPP terms for its military.

That's why next 10-15 years are absolutely vital for Indian indigenous capacity.

 

[randombully]

One factor - USSR was never the most populous country in the world with a population more than both Americas and Europe combined.

By 2050 we should look to be at 0.8+ HDI, 12000+ pci USD (in 2025 USD). That across 1.6 billion is very powerful.

And mind you, that population unlike the current Chinese population won't be handicapped due to lack of English. So that population can use existing western infrastructure to project soft power.

The dominant narrative on English language internet will be India's. Rn while there are lot's of Indians on the net even now, they aren't as "refined" as westerners. In 2050 that won't be the case.

Bt 2050 most of relatively younger indian generation will be westernized.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

bang for buck factor, aka PPP wealth, is FAR MORE RELEVANT for Chinese power projection than it is for Indian. For simple reason that China has near complete control of its industrial supply chains.

So remember, when people say 'so what India's PPP is 10,000 USD, we still buy stuff on the international market in real dollar terms so the 2500 real gdp per capita is more relevant ?'
Its completely true.
But except for raw minerals and raw resources, China doesnt buy jack shit from overseas. It makes its own. So how expensive Chinese J20 is, is based off of Chinese PPP value in reality, while our 'how expensive is Rafale' is still based on real gdp value - coz India has to pay France real USD to buy Rafale. China doesnt pay anyone any USD to buy J20, it makes its own by paying its people to make it. So in economic + military power terms, China is FAAAAAAAAAAR closer to USA than we are, because China is nearly completely in control of its industrial supply chain, so it only pays in PPP terms for its military.

With an import of $3 trillions, off course PRC doesn't import just a "few items". It's imports of industrial machinery and electronic components are too huge to be called a self sustained economy and denial of those imports would simply cause demise of its industrial complex.

Though yes, it's supply chains are more localised than India's.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

IMFs World Economic Outlook Report for Apr 2025 is out. All dataset is available here in below link for any kind of research purpose.

World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database

Use this database to find data on national accounts, inflation, unemployment rates, balance of payments, fiscal indicators, trade for countries and country groups (aggregates), and commodity prices whose data are reported by the IMF.

www.imf.org

India's estimated GDP for 2025 would be $4.19 trillions, lower than $4.27 trillions projected in October 2024 outlook. Similar slashes in estimates for rest of the world have been there.
The report projects estimates upto 2030.

I have derived few Indid relevant comparative projections from the data for upto year 2047.
I had data from the report for upto year 2030. For data after 2030, I have taken constant average growth YoY from 2031 to 2047. The growth is average of projected overall (real/nominal wherver applicable) growth for year 2028 to 2030.

1. GDP (Nominal) per capita for Bangaldesh, India and Pakistan for 2021 to 2047. No projections available for Pakistan due to ongoig economic crisis, political uncertainty, lack of proper monetary data collection mechanism, blink future of PKR and inflation and unpredictable economic outlook.


2. GDP (Nominal) per capita for Bangaldesh, India and Pakistan for 2021 to 2047.



a) Owing to Pak's high population growth rates at par with sub Sahara Africa, negligible industrial base and ineffective national budget, Pakistan will be one of few countries in Asia with Nepal, PNG, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan which will remain in low or lower middle income group while rest of Asia will graduate into upper middle income group. Pak however will remain at levels of Nepal and will continue to have 2 X income levels of Yemen and Afghanistan etc (down from currently 4-5 times). It though will have just 1/3 to 1/4 of Bangaldesh/India in PPP per capita and just 1/5 to 1/7 in nominal per capita. Just like Mexico is compared against Canada/US in North America
b) India will be an high upper middle income country like group of Eastern Europe and Russia today. India will even catch or surpass most of Latin America and Eastern Europe. It will still be having just a fraction of incomes of western Europe, USA and China. India would have become a destination for international students and immigrants to compenate for weak economic activities in east Asia and West if is able to project soft power rightly because India would have start aging and population would have started to decline. Immigration for neighbouring states like Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and from countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya which is seen as a headache today will become crucial for economic growth.
c) Bangladesh projects similar growth prospects as India but given lack of industrial complexity, geographic constraints, high debt servicing and political unertainties, Bangaldesh may not be able match India in nominal after 2-3 years and PPP after 2030. It's GDP per capita in both nominal and PPP terms will not be more than 60% to 80% of India's.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

3. GDP (Nominal) per capita for founding members for BRICS.


4. GDP (PPP) per capita for founding members for BRICS.



a) Brazil has slowed to become from early high income state, sustained nominally but effectively an upper middle income country.
b) Russia's slow but sustained growth keeps it a high income economy though not developed country at market exchange rates, the gap will be compensated in PPP and Russia will remain a rich country in PPP terms.
c) China would effectively graduate into early leagues of developed countries.
d) India would graduate into a proper higher tier of high income economies alongside eastern Europe but far from being a developed state. It would surpass Brazil living standards and even nominal GDP per capita in 2050s or even earlier than this projection given Brazil's economic outlook and will close gap with developed world with 40 to 60% GDP per capita of developed world up from 15-25% today.
e) South Africa would gradually slide near group of lower middle income countries.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

5. GDP (Nominal), Total for Post WW2 Modern Great Powers in 20th and 21st century.
6. GDP (PPP), Total for Post WW2 Modern Great Powers in 20th and 21st century.



Outlooks will sharply change upon fertility rates and changes industrial production & innovation in these states.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

It's too early to tell how much gdp growth would for this financial year (2025-26), we will have to wait till like beginning of third quarter or even fourth quarter to properly know.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

It's too early to tell how much gdp growth would for this financial year (2025-26), we will have to wait till like beginning of third quarter or even fourth quarter to properly know.

The above mentioned in 2025 AFAIK is for FY 2024-25, not 25-26.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

The above mentioned in 2025 AFAIK is for FY 2024-25, not 25-26.

No I'm taking about this financial year, they have listed predicted growth for this fin year as something like 6.6

 

[Indx TechStyle]

No I'm taking about this financial year, they have listed predicted growth for this fin year as something like 6.6

Then, the very purpose of publishing such reports is estimates and plans in accordance based on economic outlook.
I cannot make sense of purpose of following comment?

It's too early to tell how much gdp growth would for this financial year (2025-26), we will have to wait till like beginning of third quarter or even fourth quarter to properly know.

 

[deathmonger]

Good thing is China will not surpass USA until India becomes pretty strong itself.

India's real run will happen in the second half of the century.