North East States: Law and Order

[ezsasa]

I dont doubt thats the policy govt is going to apply as before. But that policy has not prevented before and people fear that will not prevent now an issue - for which most members here are expressing apprehension: demographic upset. Driving away of Native Tribes, Native Culture, Hindus by the time Govt is able to establishes control. We have seen that in Kashmir. We have seen that in Punjab. And this what people I guess are worried about in Manipur.

But given Ajit Doval sir has NE specialization - we can trust that Govt may have better gripe of the situation than we give credit to them. Lets wait and watch.

i'll just add one more bit, once in a while(years actually) we keep hearing about unsettled borders in speeches by our top people associated with our security establishment. the phrase "unsettled borders" has a larger context and implications there of, it is a phase that newly created sovereign nations go thru on their land borders, it lasts decades before it settles down. countries in central and western europe do no have internal conversations on "unsettled borders", because they have settled thru "world wars".

i have tried to visualise the core issue in the image below.

arrows represent writ and influence of the state, in border areas partial influence is always there from the neighbouring sovereign. internally no matter how much we try to play "whack-a-mole", neighbouring state can always play spoilsport for their self-interest.

ideal solution is treaty bound neighbouring state, with a clear understanding with each other that their territory should not be used against us. was attempted, and failed with pakiland.


and our neighbouring states in NE are bangladesh, china, myanmar . all of them are new sovereign states. all of them have issues arising at their boundary.

a type of solution was attempted with BD thru SHW, that understanding got disrupted because of political shifts there.

while home ministry and security establishment will continue to work on internal aspects, but the solution lies in having mutual understanding with the neighbouring state.

basically we have no easy answers for now.

 

[darkindie]

Yeah, no hammer. That was just to quell the protests and some surface-level actions.



I am sick of this fence-sitter attitute of this current govt. No decision on anything, trying to play on both sides and resultantly get fcuked by both sides.

Internet ban means off the books ops and actions. Whether it's considered hammer down or not depends upon the perspective.

Manipur Background:
Pre violence:
Manipur is a state with a very complex demography in a delicate balance.

Kuki live on hills (lack of infra) sandwiched between meities and nagas.
Meities live in valley (relatively good infra land but small in size than hills)

Land ownership between tribes/communities big problem in manipur.

Poppy farming being destroyed by GOI to kill militant orgs.(Hurts western interests/forces doing clandestine ops)

Myannmar civil war:
Kuki chin zo refugees enter india abusing the 16 km no restriction border crossing.

Number of refugees increase and kuki zo people start spilling into valley from hills, increasing ethnic tensions.

GOI suspends 16km no restriction border crossing and starts fencing border.
Start of Instability:

Manipur court gives ST status(they are) to Meities which includes some land rights.

This results in simmering tensions erupt into full blown ethnic conflict.

Churches become part of logistics network for prolonging the conflict.

GOI orders manipur police(comprising mostly of meities) to manage valley and Assam rifles to manage hills.

GOI quells violence and brings both communities to table for peace.

Experienced militants fighting in myannmar cross the border and commit violent attacks on meities to start violent ethnic clashes in Manipur with support from western clandestine forces with material support (drones, rockets, etc) being provided by china.

To deal with external militants GOI brings in IA in limited capacity.

Just like in J&K, OGWs first tried to start ethnic conflict by killing children and parading women naked. Then when it did not work militants from myannmar infiltrated to start drone and rocket attacks.

Problem:
Differentiate native kuki chin zo from the militants from myannmar.

Solution:
Cutting net to cut communication, logistics and cooperation of militants, intel based ops and off the book ops.

Reason:
If GOI takes side of any one community without differentiating between native citizens and refugees/militants of the same community will result in an internally supported insurgency which is not the case right now. Current violence is externally supported.