Too much Hopium and Copium in the forum lately, let's clear some of it.
1. Su-57E is never happening. And there are some very good reasons for that. That thing is a sasta stealth combat aircraft and does not offer any new capability in terms of low observability, precision guidance(does not even have an EOTS), no next generation long range A2A missiles, no fifth gen engines with greater thrust and efficiency(AL-51F/Item-30 is at least a decade away), and no Man Unmanned teaming. The very fact that Russians told us that Su-57E can roll out of our existing manufacturing facility in Nashik should tell us that the aircraft offers no new capability over the Su-30Mki, as it is not much more complex than it. And it runs the risk of CAATSA, no one in the GoI will risk that in the present environment.
2. F-35 is also not possible for us because we run the risk of sharing our entire threat library with the US. That is problematic for our foreign relations with the Russians and other nations. Also, there are technical limitations with the aircraft. It uses a different type of Datalink that we cannot integrate with our Datalink. Rafale is still proving to be a problematic child in this area. Imagine how problematic this will be. We won't be able to integrate our locally developed missiles and weaponry onto it, some of which is good. Think the Astra Mk3, DRDO SAAW, Rudram Mk3,
NG, and many more that will be available over the next 5-10 years. We cannot have an aircraft that we cannot integrate into our force. Plus, there are risks of USAF personnel being stationed permanently at our airbases, which raises a risk to our sovereignty.
3. Right now, AMCA is the only program, but it is in its infancy, crying about not ordering enough of it, not having the right model, and all is just hot air at this point. Wait for the prototype development, and from what I have heard and learnt is that it is going smoothly as a lot of work was already carried out before the CCS clearance was granted. AMCA will have to go into Mark development mode, Mk1 will have limited to no A2G capability, Mk2 will have enhanced stealth as well as A2G capability, and that is what the plan is right now. To have an offensive air capability, A2G can wait for some time.
The job of the IAF is to protect the airspace, and if required, we need to purchase imported equipment, and there is nothing wrong with that. A lot of our defence planning and procurement has been remedied, we have cleared the induction of 6-9 additional AWACS, 56 light transport aircraft have been ordered, more will come for sure, the MTA program has been revived, Aakahs NG, QRSAM, our airbases have been hardened and IMO they are some of the best protected ones on the planet, Project Kusha have received the right attention and have moved in the right direction, we have dramatically improved our SEAD/DEAD capability. But that does not mean there are some really big gaps/holes in the IAF and most of which are the doing of them, the MoD, and the PMO. Modi and Taklu should get the blame for our broken procurement.
Despite having seen 3 flare-ups with the Chinese and 3 with the Pakistanis in the last 11 years, there has been zero ORBAT inflation, IAF has now realized that it needs 60 manned squadron combat fleet, It pulled out of the FGFA program in 2017 but did not push for the CCS approval for 7 years, MoD did not order additional 36/54 Rafale in the aftermath of the Dogfight in Feb-19, MoD did not push for more AWACS and Tankers, did not raise the ceiling of the required combat aircraft squadrons from 42 to 60, although that is pointless given we will not be reaching the 42 number until the middle of the 2040s. Should we end up facing the Chinese and the Pakistanis in the 2030-32 time frame(India and Pakistan/China have a flare-up every 5 to 7 years), which is given at this point. IAF won't go down, it will be able to dominate the Pakistanis and hold onto the PLAAF, but it will suffer catastrophic losses. A two-front war will result in 40% or more of the IAF being trashed, but it will be able to fight on. IAF's number will start picking up from next year as more Tejas Mk1A start getting delivered, and once the Mk2 comes into the picture, it will be in a much better shape, at least numerically, but it will be a generation or two behind the Chinese and at least a generation behind the Pakistanis. But it cannot import its way out this time. There is not enough FOREX reserve to pay for big ticket foreign maal, it will have to wait for the AMCA to come online or risk losing control of the air. The IAF will hit its low point in the middle of the next decade once the Chinese induct their sixth-generation combat platforms.
at AREA-51 & S-4, helped by aliens.
