Is it really a huge come back ?
I don't see the large number of stone pelters shielding the terrorists from our forces like they used to. Mass protests on the streets with Aazadi slogans. Regular clashes between locals & the central forces. Like the Burhan Wani days.
The traitors & separatists just didn't vanish after abrogation of Article 370. As long as they the have their sleeper cells, how can we not expect such ambush to happen.
No amount of intel can over power a religiously motivated crowd. Without major reeducation program like Uigurs in China our problem is as permanent as the existance of our country.
People have seen these things for like 3 decades now & they still get astonished every time it happens.
We can establish such re education camps for Kashmiri Muslims only after we become an economy the size of China..
For now, Prio 1 should be maintaining troop levels..
Under ideal scenario:
1. From Year 1 to Year 4: 60,000 agniveers need to be recruited to counter 60k retirements from Army..
2. From Year 4 onwards, Agniveer recruitment needs to go up to 1.05 lakh every year to compensate for 60k Regular + 45k Agniveer retirement..
After year 8: We should have a regular Army intake of around 26,000 soldiers every year + around 4 lakh serving Agniveers.
After year 20: We should have 4.2 lakh Regular Army+ 4 lakh Agniveers..
Alas, We already didn't recruit enough Agniveers during covid.. and now we are short 1.6 lakh.. Agniveers will start retiring in 2 years.. GOI will have no choice but to extend their contract ..
Also, CAPF has been increasing in size for the last 10 years.. Better GOI recruit 30,000 more directly under Army command like Assam Rifles . Initial casualties will be high, but like in case of naxal areas, they will learn and dominate.. Also, increased tenure means.. CAPFs will retain experienced personnel for longer..