Nirbhay's last two test were successful, one more in a row and missile will get the tag of successful developed by drdo, looking at past schedules third test will take place around march-april next year.
Previous tests were conducted around the same time in 2023 and 2024.
let me add some background of what's on my mind on this...
nirbhay has 200-300 kg warhead, in past decade in the cruise missile salvos that got fired are in the range of 60-80 per airfield in west asia conflicts(accounting for loss in flight within the fired salvo). i am making the assumption nibhay inventory should be a 1000 missile with say 50% mounted and rest in stock.
let's say production rate is 100 per annum, and if we do a backwards calculation.
- to fulfill the entire order, 10 years.
- with a year or two give out sub-component orders and received by OEM, so 12 years.
- two years minimum for paperwork in MoD and IA for contract to be signed, so 14 years.
- three years atleast for hot and cold user trails, so 17 years.
so it's 17 years for entire cycle, after development agency declares the system ready for user trials.
in the mean time, one also has to factor in that, once the system is ready for production, folks like shudi ranjan sen of bloomberg will release a rumour quoting sources that U.S is ready to sell tomahawks. his friends in print, India today, dhindu etc will amplify those rumours. defence fanboys will immediately start rr and gaali on gormint of the day and the forces.
ofcourse it is complex tech, but there are other process cycles that are dependant on development phase being completed.
