Indian Air Force: News & Discussions

[Azaad]

thinking is

pakistan economy will forever be in toilet , they cant afford a war . and China even with 500 j-20 wont be able to 100% guarantee a victory over us in himalayas - they wont risk a humiliation

i dont think its entirly wrong . we will "most likely" always have enough firepower to stare down the chinese . already happening at LAC and Pakistan will always be a shithole.

Having given this much thought over the past 4 + years I've come to the following conclusions fwiw -

The Chinese will prosecute a war on both India & Taiwan principally because they're in a state of hubris , the kind the IJA was in the late 30s in spite of counsel asking them to abandon their plans of waging war on the US. Instead the IJA & it's supporters went after those advocating restraint assassinating , imprisoning disappearing & intimidating them . The CCP thinks like the IJA before it their time in the world has come & the west has entered a period of terminal decline which would have been true if the CCP followed Deng's dictum of hiding their strength & biding their time sticking to their earlier time table of retaking Taiwan in the late 2040s to coincide with the centenary of the PRC but that's another story.

There's another reason the CCP would initiate hostilities which is the state of trade relations with the west . With the Chinese economy in some trouble what with domestic consumption being flat in spite of stimulus packages , their entire economy being built around export & most importantly the dwindling prospects for foreign companies in China vis a vis the severe onslaught these companies are facing from the Chinese in their own home countries will neither go un noticed nor unpunished by the west . The arrival of Trump worsens an already bad scenario.

This in turn will severely dent the CCP within China who'd then turn to nationalism to boost their popularity & quell dissent at home . I anticipate this story to play out throughout Trump's term in office . This is also coincides with the successful modernization & theater ization plans towards the fag end of this decade.

As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.

The war against India will be waged in a two pronged manner - one would be on the LAC & the other would be usage of everything they've in their arsenal from cyber warfare , ISR thru space assets , PLARF , PLAAF etc targeting our logistical & industrial network say upto 100 -200 kms behind the LAC .

If Chinese objectives aren't met within say 2-3 months the CCP will get desperate. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time. The CCP will then start targeting our population & industrial centres deep within the mainland in a graduated manner not just to demoralize us but to destroy our centres of production aiding the war .

They can achieve this by full utilisation of their PLAAF but more than that thru their PLARF . Please do note that Delhi is not more than 500 kms from the LAC & this is true for most population & industrial centres in N & E India including the NE . Unfortunately our dhotis aren't factoring this part in their calculations.

You've to understand the psyche behind the reason the CCP would resort to such moves . It helps to note the consequences of failure for all the principal players involved in this conflict. Xi Jinping has made enemies out of all the factions within the CCP & their supporting arms be it the bureaucracy the government business etc . Even a stalemate will be perceived as a loss by these elements & the knives will be out for Xi . Since he exercises absolute power as in the time of Mao unlike the consultative leadership of Deng & all subsequent leaders post Deng up until Xi , all success would be to his credit . So would all failures. For a person of his stature failure even if it's a stalemate it'd be seen as a failure resulting in a bullet in his head & that of his coterie followed by burial in unmarked graves . Long story short , Modi or whoever is in his shoes fails , he loses the election & spends the rest of his time in & out of office in humiliation & ignominy unless of course he has a stroke like Chacha & the narrative immediately changes from what a xutia to poor chap the Chinese untrustworthy buggers betrayed him just like they did 60 years ago . If Xi loses , I've already detailed what follows.

The dhotis think our Nuclear Weapons will deter the Chinese from escalating , one reason you're seeing / have seen a flurry of tests of BMs & construction / planning of other such vectors. I fear the Chinese will call our bluff which in the absence of a conventional deterrence be it in the form of the IAF or an huge inventory of IRBMs / CMs will not only come back to haunt us but force the leadership then to actually undertake their threat. For in order to carry out our threat we'd have to target one HV location of theirs with say 1 NW in response to their conventional weapon onslaught. Do you see it happening ? If it does they'd retaliate disproportionately . Then what ?

As always there are no easy solutions today & 56" has only made a bad situation he's inherited w.r t defence worse . Lots of other factors going against us which are too many to list but trust you get the gist . Just my 2 cents.

 

[iNorthernerOn9]

Having given this much thought over the past 4 + years I've come to the following conclusions fwiw -

The Chinese will prosecute a war on both India & Taiwan principally because they're in a state of hubris , the kind the IJA was in the late 30s in spite of counsel asking them to abandon their plans of waging war on the US. Instead the IJA & it's supporters went after those advocating restraint assassinating , imprisoning disappearing & intimidating them . The CCP thinks like the IJA before it their time in the world has come & the west has entered a period of terminal decline which would have been true if the CCP followed Deng's dictum of hiding their strength & biding their time sticking to their earlier time table of retaking Taiwan in the late 2040s to coincide with the centenary of the PRC but that's another story.

There's another reason the CCP would initiate hostilities which is the state of trade relations with the west . With the Chinese economy in some trouble what with domestic consumption being flat in spite of stimulus packages , their entire economy being built around export & most importantly the dwindling prospects for foreign companies in China vis a vis the severe onslaught these companies are facing from the Chinese in their own home countries will neither go un noticed nor unpunished by the west . The arrival of Trump worsens an already bad scenario.

This in turn will severely dent the CCP within China who'd then turn to nationalism to boost their popularity & quell dissent at home . I anticipate this story to play out throughout Trump's term in office . This is also coincides with the successful modernization & theater ization plans towards the fag end of this decade.

As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.

The war against India will be waged in a two pronged manner - one would be on the LAC & the other would be usage of everything they've in their arsenal from cyber warfare , ISR thru space assets , PLARF , PLAAF etc targeting our logistical & industrial network say upto 100 -200 kms behind the LAC .

If Chinese objectives aren't met within say 2-3 months the CCP will get desperate. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time. The CCP will then start targeting our population & industrial centres deep within the mainland in a graduated manner not just to demoralize us but to destroy our centres of production aiding the war .

They can achieve this by full utilisation of their PLAAF but more than that thru their PLARF . Please do note that Delhi is not more than 500 kms from the LAC & this is true for most population & industrial centres in N & E India including the NE . Unfortunately our dhotis aren't factoring this part in their calculations.

You've to understand the psyche behind the reason the CCP would resort to such moves . It helps to note the consequences of failure for all the principal players involved in this conflict. Xi Jinping has made enemies out of all the factions within the CCP & their supporting arms be it the bureaucracy the government business etc . Even a stalemate will be perceived as a loss by these elements & the knives will be out for Xi . Since he exercises absolute power as in the time of Mao unlike the consultative leadership of Deng & all subsequent leaders post Deng up until Xi , all success would be to his credit . So would all failures. For a person of his stature failure even if it's a stalemate it'd be seen as a failure resulting in a bullet in his head & that of his coterie followed by burial in unmarked graves . Long story short , Modi or whoever is in his shoes fails , he loses the election & spends the rest of his time in & out of office in humiliation & ignominy unless of course he has a stroke like Chacha & the narrative immediately changes from what a xutia to poor chap the Chinese untrustworthy buggers betrayed him just like they did 60 years ago . If Xi loses , I've already detailed what follows.

The dhotis think our Nuclear Weapons will deter the Chinese from escalating , one reason you're seeing / have seen a flurry of tests of BMs & construction / planning of other such vectors. I fear the Chinese will call our bluff which in the absence of a conventional deterrence be it in the form of the IAF or an huge inventory of IRBMs / CMs will not only come back to haunt us but force the leadership then to actually undertake their threat. For in order to carry out our threat we'd have to target one HV location of theirs with say 1 NW in response to their conventional weapon onslaught. Do you see it happening ? If it does they'd retaliate disproportionately . Then what ?

As always there are no easy solutions today & 56" has only made a bad situation he's inherited w.r t defence worse . Lots of other factors going against us which are too many to list but trust you get the gist . Just my 2 cents.

I have already mentioned couple of times before... as the saying in magadhi goes "tehuna se lor chuna": bleeding tears from knees... lagta hai ye ho kar rahega.

 

[shade2]

As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.

. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time.

Agree with the rest of your post except this.
They have seen Russia getting bogged down in Ukraine, they possibly realize what the US wants with India with Mudi being regime changed.

So I disagree, I say they will go for Taiwan first, directly, put their dick on the table and see what the pale-skinned pussies do.

My bet here is fuck all happens, there is no WW3, there is no USN vs PLAAN naval battle, there is a quick capture of Taiwan.

Now after the resulting stock market crashes, electronics shortages and sanctions of Cheen will they go after us, since now they have absolutely nothing to lose, and we will be assumed to be an ez win since the Dhotis will be shit scared of the uncontested grab of Taiwan by chings

 

[E-195]

Having given this much thought over the past 4 + years I've come to the following conclusions fwiw -

The Chinese will prosecute a war on both India & Taiwan principally because they're in a state of hubris , the kind the IJA was in the late 30s in spite of counsel asking them to abandon their plans of waging war on the US. Instead the IJA & it's supporters went after those advocating restraint assassinating , imprisoning disappearing & intimidating them . The CCP thinks like the IJA before it their time in the world has come & the west has entered a period of terminal decline which would have been true if the CCP followed Deng's dictum of hiding their strength & biding their time sticking to their earlier time table of retaking Taiwan in the late 2040s to coincide with the centenary of the PRC but that's another story.

There's another reason the CCP would initiate hostilities which is the state of trade relations with the west . With the Chinese economy in some trouble what with domestic consumption being flat in spite of stimulus packages , their entire economy being built around export & most importantly the dwindling prospects for foreign companies in China vis a vis the severe onslaught these companies are facing from the Chinese in their own home countries will neither go un noticed nor unpunished by the west . The arrival of Trump worsens an already bad scenario.

This in turn will severely dent the CCP within China who'd then turn to nationalism to boost their popularity & quell dissent at home . I anticipate this story to play out throughout Trump's term in office . This is also coincides with the successful modernization & theater ization plans towards the fag end of this decade.

As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.

The war against India will be waged in a two pronged manner - one would be on the LAC & the other would be usage of everything they've in their arsenal from cyber warfare , ISR thru space assets , PLARF , PLAAF etc targeting our logistical & industrial network say upto 100 -200 kms behind the LAC .

If Chinese objectives aren't met within say 2-3 months the CCP will get desperate. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time. The CCP will then start targeting our population & industrial centres deep within the mainland in a graduated manner not just to demoralize us but to destroy our centres of production aiding the war .

They can achieve this by full utilisation of their PLAAF but more than that thru their PLARF . Please do note that Delhi is not more than 500 kms from the LAC & this is true for most population & industrial centres in N & E India including the NE . Unfortunately our dhotis aren't factoring this part in their calculations.

You've to understand the psyche behind the reason the CCP would resort to such moves . It helps to note the consequences of failure for all the principal players involved in this conflict. Xi Jinping has made enemies out of all the factions within the CCP & their supporting arms be it the bureaucracy the government business etc . Even a stalemate will be perceived as a loss by these elements & the knives will be out for Xi . Since he exercises absolute power as in the time of Mao unlike the consultative leadership of Deng & all subsequent leaders post Deng up until Xi , all success would be to his credit . So would all failures. For a person of his stature failure even if it's a stalemate it'd be seen as a failure resulting in a bullet in his head & that of his coterie followed by burial in unmarked graves . Long story short , Modi or whoever is in his shoes fails , he loses the election & spends the rest of his time in & out of office in humiliation & ignominy unless of course he has a stroke like Chacha & the narrative immediately changes from what a xutia to poor chap the Chinese untrustworthy buggers betrayed him just like they did 60 years ago . If Xi loses , I've already detailed what follows.

The dhotis think our Nuclear Weapons will deter the Chinese from escalating , one reason you're seeing / have seen a flurry of tests of BMs & construction / planning of other such vectors. I fear the Chinese will call our bluff which in the absence of a conventional deterrence be it in the form of the IAF or an huge inventory of IRBMs / CMs will not only come back to haunt us but force the leadership then to actually undertake their threat. For in order to carry out our threat we'd have to target one HV location of theirs with say 1 NW in response to their conventional weapon onslaught. Do you see it happening ? If it does they'd retaliate disproportionately . Then what ?

As always there are no easy solutions today & 56" has only made a bad situation he's inherited w.r t defence worse . Lots of other factors going against us which are too many to list but trust you get the gist . Just my 2 cents.

I totally agree with you, the CCP has its main goals in Asia, Russia is one, India is another and Taiwan is the most visible.


However India in my opinion is in big danger, first because your main bulk of population is near the Chinese India border, I have no doubt China will be defeated like the Japanese were, however the danger of the Chinese is not that they will rule the world, but they can create great sufferings and tragedy in Asia like Japan did in WWII.


See this 2013 document

The six ‘inevitable’ wars suggested in the article’s title are presented in the chronological order in which they will take place:

1. The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
2. The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
3. The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
4. The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
5. The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
6. The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)

China's six wars in the next 50 years | The Strategist

In a recent post, I introduced a new PRC book entitled ‘China Is Not Afraid — New Threats to National Security and Our Strategic Responses’, (中国不怕——国防安全新威胁与我们的战略应对). I suggested that the volume is part of a ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

India must defend properly otehrwise China will create too much chaos in Asia

 

[silentassassin265]

I totally agree with you, the CCP has its main goals in Asia, Russia is one, India is another and Taiwan is the most visible.


However India in my opinion is in big danger, first because your main bulk of population is near the Chinese India border, I have no doubt China will be defeated like the Japanese were, however the danger of the Chinese is not that they will rule the world, but they can create great sufferings and tragedy in Asia like Japan did in WWII.


See this 2013 document

The six ‘inevitable’ wars suggested in the article’s title are presented in the chronological order in which they will take place:

1. The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
2. The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
3. The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
4. The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
5. The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
6. The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)

China's six wars in the next 50 years | The Strategist

In a recent post, I introduced a new PRC book entitled ‘China Is Not Afraid — New Threats to National Security and Our Strategic Responses’, (中国不怕——国防安全新威胁与我们的战略应对). I suggested that the volume is part of a ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

India must defend properly otehrwise China will create too much chaos in Asia

Depends if IAF can complete mrfa program till 2035

 

[GaudaNaresh]

I totally agree with you, the CCP has its main goals in Asia, Russia is one, India is another and Taiwan is the most visible.


However India in my opinion is in big danger, first because your main bulk of population is near the Chinese India border, I have no doubt China will be defeated like the Japanese were, however the danger of the Chinese is not that they will rule the world, but they can create great sufferings and tragedy in Asia like Japan did in WWII.


See this 2013 document

The six ‘inevitable’ wars suggested in the article’s title are presented in the chronological order in which they will take place:

1. The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
2. The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
3. The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
4. The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
5. The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
6. The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)

China's six wars in the next 50 years | The Strategist

In a recent post, I introduced a new PRC book entitled ‘China Is Not Afraid — New Threats to National Security and Our Strategic Responses’, (中国不怕——国防安全新威胁与我们的战略应对). I suggested that the volume is part of a ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

India must defend properly otehrwise China will create too much chaos in Asia

Any India-China war to recover AP will have to account for nuclear armed status and have a clear pathway- which has never been presented.
How exactly are you supposed to conquer an area the size of Portugal from a nuclear power, without nukes going off, at least on your forward bases and such ?? And then what ?
This has to be factored in.
If this is not a factor and somehow we never launch nukes at one another, then its a battle of the inches, where China still doesnt have logistical superiority and its a war that will drag on like Ukraine because it will again,come down to human waves vs human defence and shit tons of drones, dones and especially drones in the high himalayas where vehicles are even more useless.

but thats not a scenario that is viable to consider, since i think we can ALL safely conclude that IF Ukraine had nukes, they'd have used it on Russia by now, especially at theatre level. Which no one would've opposed in the west either. So from Russian POV, how are they supposed to wage a war vs a side that will nuke 50,000 russian combat troops over a frontline sector ?

The only scenario that can work, is what Russia did in Crimea - rapid mass scale deployment of combined arms of the military to overwhelm any defence in the region and take total control before there is a formulated response in 48-72 hours and use ' posession is 9/10th of the law' as bargain chip to keep your gains.
Which is also impossible in AP. So i cant see how China can seriously persue AP or Siberian territories as an objective goal without solving the nuclear conundrum.

 

[maximus777]

Both CCP and PRC are over the hill and in a slow decline. Their best years are behind them, and they know it. They will force the issue while they still have the military/economic disparity in their favor vis-a-vis India and Taiwan. So, something is in the offing soon.

 

[E-195]

Any India-China war to recover AP will have to account for nuclear armed status and have a clear pathway- which has never been presented.
How exactly are you supposed to conquer an area the size of Portugal from a nuclear power, without nukes going off, at least on your forward bases and such ?? And then what ?
This has to be factored in.
If this is not a factor and somehow we never launch nukes at one another, then its a battle of the inches, where China still doesnt have logistical superiority and its a war that will drag on like Ukraine because it will again,come down to human waves vs human defence and shit tons of drones, dones and especially drones in the high himalayas where vehicles are even more useless.

but thats not a scenario that is viable to consider, since i think we can ALL safely conclude that IF Ukraine had nukes, they'd have used it on Russia by now, especially at theatre level. Which no one would've opposed in the west either. So from Russian POV, how are they supposed to wage a war vs a side that will nuke 50,000 russian combat troops over a frontline sector ?

The only scenario that can work, is what Russia did in Crimea - rapid mass scale deployment of combined arms of the military to overwhelm any defence in the region and take total control before there is a formulated response in 48-72 hours and use ' posession is 9/10th of the law' as bargain chip to keep your gains.
Which is also impossible in AP. So i cant see how China can seriously persue AP or Siberian territories as an objective goal without solving the nuclear conundrum.

You are correct, and I agree, however you have to see there are two trends, one is rational, which means people understand cooperation and justice are the main factors to allow an increase in population and the wealth of that population; and the other is the idea you can win a nuclear war or WWIII.


Technically the trend is to destroy ICBMs (basically destroying part of the nuclear forces of the enemy), this trends is now evident in the Iran-Israel conflict where missiles are intercepted.

This could advance with lasers or high energy weapons.

The other factor is nuclear war can happen by accident, I mean it starts by conventional war, like Ukraine or Iran-Israel war. and becomes nuclear.

A nation can start nuclear war by thinking it can win it or thinking it can lose it.

The more conventional weapons superiority the more it thinks it can force its peers to subdue thinking a nuclear crisis will be avoided as long as creeping upon territory gained by conventional means like Ukraine is in the NATO-Russia conflict.

Superiority in delivery systems might make think a nation it can win a WWIII and that is what the military are trying to do in nuclear powers, specially Russia, China and the USA.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

You are correct, and I agree, however you have to see there are two trends, one is rational, which means people understand cooperation and justice are the main factors to allow an increase in population and the wealth of that population; and the other is the idea you can win a nuclear war or WWIII.


Technically the trend is to destroy ICBMs (basically destroying part of the nuclear forces of the enemy), this trends is now evident in the Iran-Israel conflict where missiles are intercepted.

This could advance with lasers or high energy weapons.

The other factor is nuclear war can happen by accident, I mean it starts by conventional war, like Ukraine or Iran-Israel war. and becomes nuclear.

A nation can start nuclear war by thinking it can win it or thinking it can lose it.

The more conventional weapons superiority the more it thinks it can force its peers to subdue thinking a nuclear crisis will be avoided as long as creeping upon territory gained by conventional means like Ukraine is in the NATO-Russia conflict.

Superiority in delivery system might make think a nation it can win a WWIII and that is what the military are trying to do in nuclear powers, specially Russia, China and the USA.

If there is one constant in modern history, its that in 99% cases, its the military that is saying ' NO DONT DO IT ITS BAD IDEA' and the govt ( dictator or civilian) goes ahead and does it.
Because when push comes to shove, ALL militaries are rational in the most basic department - cost analysis, as in what have we gained and what is the cost for this gain in human+non human materials.

Since Chicoms are practically the MOST military-controlled state in military matters (PLA has direct embedding in CPC), i dont expect them to be a zelensky or hitler-like idiots, following the bigboss to certain doom and messy war.

India has nuclear triad and there is no amount of lasers and what not you can use to defend your forward locations as well as cities. That much material simply does not exist - if a nation is at ANY risk for nuclear strike, their entire AA architecture will be directed towards their population centres or established military hard points, not forward bases.
Ie, what China has to account for, which they cannot prevent, is we will nuke them IN Arunachal Pradesh itself if push came to shove. That is a risk they have to factor in and cannot just go in with ' desi dhoti shivering nincompoops will never nuke their own land', especially if war weariness reaches Ukraine levels.

First strike doctrine only works against nuclear missile silos. Not against the other two arms of the triad - the submarine launched ones and the truck launched ones. And not even USA can eliminate India's truck launched capacity to launch ICBM or IRBM or SRBM to nuke a site 500km away.

 

[E-195]

If there is one constant in modern history, its that in 99% cases, its the military that is saying ' NO DONT DO IT ITS BAD IDEA' and the govt ( dictator or civilian) goes ahead and does it.
Because when push comes to shove, ALL militaries are rational in the most basic department - cost analysis, as in what have we gained and what is the cost for this gain in human+non human materials.

Since Chicoms are practically the MOST military-controlled state in military matters (PLA has direct embedding in CPC), i dont expect them to be a zelensky or hitler-like idiots, following the bigboss to certain doom and messy war.

India has nuclear triad and there is no amount of lasers and what not you can use to defend your forward locations as well as cities. That much material simply does not exist - if a nation is at ANY risk for nuclear strike, their entire AA architecture will be directed towards their population centres or established military hard points, not forward bases.
Ie, what China has to account for, which they cannot prevent, is we will nuke them IN Arunachal Pradesh itself if push came to shove. That is a risk they have to factor in and cannot just go in with ' desi dhoti shivering nincompoops will never nuke their own land', especially if war weariness reaches Ukraine levels.

First strike doctrine only works against nuclear missile silos. Not against the other two arms of the triad - the submarine launched ones and the truck launched ones. And not even USA can eliminate India's truck launched capacity to launch ICBM or IRBM or SRBM to nuke a site 500km away.

you are rational and correct if you think people are rational, however humans not always act rationally, and wars happen by accident, WWI is an example.

Rationally you are right, but if we were rational the arms race would be over, but it is not, it advances because the inner thinking is a superiority that will allow win a war.

The interception of missiles as in the Iran-Israel conflict shows, it shows the tendency for ambition to destroy the ICBMs hurl at them.

Rationally we should stop the nuclear race, but most politicians are blind by power and the CCP is one of the most blind

 

[GaudaNaresh]

you are rational and correct if you think people are rational, however humans not always act rationally, and wars happen by accident, WWI is an example.

Rationally you are right, but if we were rational the arms race would be over, but it is not, it advances because the inner thinking is a superiority that will allow win a war.

The interception of missiles as in the Iran-Israel conflict shows, it shows the tendency for ambition to destroy the ICBMs hurl at them.

Rationally we should stop the nuclear race, but most politicians are blind by power and the CCP is one of the most blind

Like i said, any attack on nuclear power, even conventional, has to solve the issue of ' okay we beat the heck outta them with conventional military, took an area the size of belgium and then they nuked us in the area we took and now we have half a million dead soldiers' conundrum.
No amount of your AD is gonna protect your frontlines from both missiles and arty strikes. Thats just not possible a far as physics is concerned lol.
For china to attack india directly, it HAS to solve this problem else they still lose ( yes we lose harder if we nuke our own territory but they also lose).

 

[E-195]

Like i said, any attack on nuclear power, even conventional, has to solve the issue of ' okay we beat the heck outta them with conventional military, took an area the size of belgium and then they nuked us in the area we took and now we have half a million dead soldiers' conundrum.
No amount of your AD is gonna protect your frontlines from both missiles and arty strikes. Thats just not possible a far as physics is concerned lol.
For china to attack india directly, it HAS to solve this problem else they still lose ( yes we lose harder if we nuke our own territory but they also lose).

agree, and let us hope rational thinking prevails, however as anti-missile technology advances the risk is higher.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

agree, and let us hope rational thinking prevails, however as anti-missile technology advances the risk is higher.

Arre baba, China is not going to bring anti-missile tech INTO arunachal pradesh. How the hell are you gonna bring huge lumbering vehicles that are designed to go 60mph max speed and plonk down over a flat terrain across the himalayas ?
There is no rational vs irrational in ' how do we the chinese get our people from getting nuked IN Arunachal Pradesh'. Because there is no mechanism for them to block missiles we are shooting there to nuke them there. They have to solve this, else there will be no war.

 

[samsaptaka]

1. The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
2. The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
3. The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
4. The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
5. The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
6. The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)

Must appreciate and admire the chinkas for having long term goals and a historical perspective to get back what they perceive is historically theirs (right or wrong is another debate). Where is our own long term plan to get back atleast part of our historical land and reintegrate them back into Bharath - Afghanistan, Bangladesh, SL, Myanmar, PoK etc.....Now don't go raising questions like - oh that's not easy, what to do with the sullah population etc ...these come later, first you should have the long term vision that we want them back . But sickular govt means we never even have such thoughts.

 

[Patriots]

View: https://x.com/DDNewslive/status/1856925027096019108

 

[shade2]

If there is one constant in modern history, its that in 99% cases, its the military that is saying ' NO DONT DO IT ITS BAD IDEA' and the govt ( dictator or civilian) goes ahead and does it.
Because when push comes to shove, ALL militaries are rational in the most basic department - cost analysis, as in what have we gained and what is the cost for this gain in human+non human materials.

Since Chicoms are practically the MOST military-controlled state in military matters (PLA has direct embedding in CPC), i dont expect them to be a zelensky or hitler-like idiots, following the bigboss to certain doom and messy war.

India has nuclear triad and there is no amount of lasers and what not you can use to defend your forward locations as well as cities. That much material simply does not exist - if a nation is at ANY risk for nuclear strike, their entire AA architecture will be directed towards their population centres or established military hard points, not forward bases.
Ie, what China has to account for, which they cannot prevent, is we will nuke them IN Arunachal Pradesh itself if push came to shove. That is a risk they have to factor in and cannot just go in with ' desi dhoti shivering nincompoops will never nuke their own land', especially if war weariness reaches Ukraine levels.

First strike doctrine only works against nuclear missile silos. Not against the other two arms of the triad - the submarine launched ones and the truck launched ones. And not even USA can eliminate India's truck launched capacity to launch ICBM or IRBM or SRBM to nuke a site 500km away.

Do we have them tacticool nukes though.
Like we have 2x ballistic missile delivery systems, 1x via Mirages which is a dumb bomb delivery

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Do we have them tacticool nukes though.
Like we have 2x ballistic missile delivery systems, 1x via Mirages which is a dumb bomb delivery

Doesnt matter. Every nuke that isnt a hydrogen bomb, is a tactical nuke if needed to be - you can always dial down the reactivity of the bomb by adjusting fissile material size in the bomb - sure, it takes time, but the time we are talking is pretty much 24 hrs or so to turn several nukes into a tactical nukes.

 

[COLDHEARTED AVIATOR]

View: https://youtu.be/wCXBud40_V4?si=V9d92WEFwK99jLPB

 

[Nibbler]

Having given this much thought over the past 4 + years I've come to the following conclusions fwiw -

The Chinese will prosecute a war on both India & Taiwan principally because they're in a state of hubris , the kind the IJA was in the late 30s in spite of counsel asking them to abandon their plans of waging war on the US. Instead the IJA & it's supporters went after those advocating restraint assassinating , imprisoning disappearing & intimidating them . The CCP thinks like the IJA before it their time in the world has come & the west has entered a period of terminal decline which would have been true if the CCP followed Deng's dictum of hiding their strength & biding their time sticking to their earlier time table of retaking Taiwan in the late 2040s to coincide with the centenary of the PRC but that's another story.

There's another reason the CCP would initiate hostilities which is the state of trade relations with the west . With the Chinese economy in some trouble what with domestic consumption being flat in spite of stimulus packages , their entire economy being built around export & most importantly the dwindling prospects for foreign companies in China vis a vis the severe onslaught these companies are facing from the Chinese in their own home countries will neither go un noticed nor unpunished by the west . The arrival of Trump worsens an already bad scenario.

This in turn will severely dent the CCP within China who'd then turn to nationalism to boost their popularity & quell dissent at home . I anticipate this story to play out throughout Trump's term in office . This is also coincides with the successful modernization & theater ization plans towards the fag end of this decade.

As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.

The war against India will be waged in a two pronged manner - one would be on the LAC & the other would be usage of everything they've in their arsenal from cyber warfare , ISR thru space assets , PLARF , PLAAF etc targeting our logistical & industrial network say upto 100 -200 kms behind the LAC .

If Chinese objectives aren't met within say 2-3 months the CCP will get desperate. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time. The CCP will then start targeting our population & industrial centres deep within the mainland in a graduated manner not just to demoralize us but to destroy our centres of production aiding the war .

They can achieve this by full utilisation of their PLAAF but more than that thru their PLARF . Please do note that Delhi is not more than 500 kms from the LAC & this is true for most population & industrial centres in N & E India including the NE . Unfortunately our dhotis aren't factoring this part in their calculations.

You've to understand the psyche behind the reason the CCP would resort to such moves . It helps to note the consequences of failure for all the principal players involved in this conflict. Xi Jinping has made enemies out of all the factions within the CCP & their supporting arms be it the bureaucracy the government business etc . Even a stalemate will be perceived as a loss by these elements & the knives will be out for Xi . Since he exercises absolute power as in the time of Mao unlike the consultative leadership of Deng & all subsequent leaders post Deng up until Xi , all success would be to his credit . So would all failures. For a person of his stature failure even if it's a stalemate it'd be seen as a failure resulting in a bullet in his head & that of his coterie followed by burial in unmarked graves . Long story short , Modi or whoever is in his shoes fails , he loses the election & spends the rest of his time in & out of office in humiliation & ignominy unless of course he has a stroke like Chacha & the narrative immediately changes from what a xutia to poor chap the Chinese untrustworthy buggers betrayed him just like they did 60 years ago . If Xi loses , I've already detailed what follows.

The dhotis think our Nuclear Weapons will deter the Chinese from escalating , one reason you're seeing / have seen a flurry of tests of BMs & construction / planning of other such vectors. I fear the Chinese will call our bluff which in the absence of a conventional deterrence be it in the form of the IAF or an huge inventory of IRBMs / CMs will not only come back to haunt us but force the leadership then to actually undertake their threat. For in order to carry out our threat we'd have to target one HV location of theirs with say 1 NW in response to their conventional weapon onslaught. Do you see it happening ? If it does they'd retaliate disproportionately . Then what ?

As always there are no easy solutions today & 56" has only made a bad situation he's inherited w.r t defence worse . Lots of other factors going against us which are too many to list but trust you get the gist . Just my 2 cents.

Ccp is not in a “state of hubris”. They are in a state of uncertainty and fear. Don’t let wumao internet chest thumping guide your understanding of china.

I think the best way to evaluate whether china will go to war is to:

1. Open a topographical map of tibet
2. Put down on paper. what the Chinese stand to gain by getting land that is hostile to human life
3. Put down on paper what they stand to lose
4. See if any rational human will take that gamble.

I totally agree with you, the CCP has its main goals in Asia, Russia is one, India is another and Taiwan is the most visible.


However India in my opinion is in big danger, first because your main bulk of population is near the Chinese India border, I have no doubt China will be defeated like the Japanese were, however the danger of the Chinese is not that they will rule the world, but they can create great sufferings and tragedy in Asia like Japan did in WWII.


See this 2013 document

The six ‘inevitable’ wars suggested in the article’s title are presented in the chronological order in which they will take place:

1. The war to unify Taiwan (2020–2025)
2. The war to recover the various islands of the South China Sea (2025–2030)
3. The war to recover southern Tibet (2035–2040)
4. The war to recover Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus (2040–2045)
5. The war to unify Outer Mongolia (2045–2050)
6. The war to recover the territory seized by Russia (2055–2060)

China's six wars in the next 50 years | The Strategist

In a recent post, I introduced a new PRC book entitled ‘China Is Not Afraid — New Threats to National Security and Our Strategic Responses’, (中国不怕——国防安全新威胁与我们的战略应对). I suggested that the volume is part of a ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

India must defend properly otehrwise China will create too much chaos in Asia

1 out of 3 Chinese will be over the age of 60 in that time frame. With lifetime of chain smoking and breathing in glorious air quality of china.

I don’t think India should get complacent (especially in the Indian Ocean) but I do think it’s ok to bask in the glory of our geographical and demographic advantages and not indulge too much in Mujeet fantasies that cheen is going to come jumping over Himalayas to save them.

 

[samsaptaka]

@hit&run last couple of pages good discussion probably belongs to the Indo China LaC thread, please check if you want to move these there