Wrt to current situation.. I'm now cent percent sure IAF will go for two squadrons of F35 as air chief rightly pointed out that we have to match capability of imminent PAF purchase of J36 off the shelf.. we can't continue to wait for AMCA while both are adversaries while be flying their respective 5th gen vectors.
CAPABILITY DELAYED IS CAPABILITY DENIED
IAF never going to buy an 5th Gen fighter from US, GOI will simply going to shut it off due to higher cost and corresponding Terms and conditions which the US may levy on IAF.
IAF at present is not in great shape and we should acknowledge it. It needs an long term support with 5 year review. For the first 5 years it can plan only few things.
1. Ensure it receives the Tejas MK1A as GE started to deliver albeit in a delayed fashion. Ensure it orders the second batch of 97 Jets. Based on that HAL can deliver an 16 Jets per year we end up 80 Jets in 5 years. (Min Production rate).
2. Try to lobby for second tranche of Rafale. Another G2G deal of 36 or whatever. By this we can increase the Rafale strength to 72.
3. Ensure the speedy process of SU-30 MKI upgrades. AESA, MAWS, RWR and integration. By 5 Years try to upgrade Half the fleet/Entire fleet.
4. Maintain the Mirage 2000 Fleet by replacing lost aircraft and purchase decommissioned ones for spares. We tried and due to high acquisition cost we chickened out. Also if possible replace the RDY Radar with Uttam Derivative.
5. Another Plane which can be useful if we tinkered around in Mig 29. The current Mig 29 is UPG variant with ZHUK M PESA Radar. Replace the ZHUK with Uttam AESA derivative.
6. Upgrade common encrypted communication between Rafale, SU-30, Tejas MK1A, Mig29, M2000.
At the end of 5 years we will have an small, but quality Frontline fighters. The above part is more about upgrading with less capital purchase (Extra Tejas, M2000 airframes).
Coming to Heli, Transport here some capital purchase needs to be done.
7. Replace all aging Chetaks with LUH.
8. Order additional Chinooks.
9. Increase the order of C-295 to replace the AN32E (Ukraine is screwed stop expecting spares).
10. Order extra C-130
12. Purchase Embraer EJ145 for Netra MK1 in commercial market.
From 7-12 GOI can do point 12, 7, 9 which gives some Transport and AWACS capability.
Also increase the armament base from India. Integrate Astra, Gaurav, SAAW, Low cost cruise missile into all front line aircrafts.
This can be done in next 5 years. But all of them were armchair expert dream. Take it with salt.