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Ccp is not in a “state of hubris”. They are in a state of uncertainty and fear. Don’t let wumao internet chest thumping guide your understanding of china.
I think the best way to evaluate whether china will go to war is to:
1. Open a topographical map of tibet
2. Put down on paper. what the Chinese stand to gain by getting land that is hostile to human life
3. Put down on paper what they stand to lose
4. See if any rational human will take that gamble.
1 out of 3 Chinese will be over the age of 60 in that time frame. With lifetime of chain smoking and breathing in glorious air quality of china.
I don’t think India should get complacent (especially in the Indian Ocean) but I do think it’s ok to bask in the glory of our geographical and demographic advantages and not indulge too much in Mujeet fantasies that cheen is going to come jumping over Himalayas to save them.
They will cease rationality once they grab Taiwan unnopposed which will happen.
They have an excess of male population ready to be thrown into a meatgrinder war.
India is the only nail in all of Asia that has to be hammered down by China, nobody else stands up to their ungli, the other superpower nail will fuck off back to California since bases and ships can be moved but whole countries can't change their geography.
In the end i think Chinku wants their own version of Monroe Doctrine where all of Asia is in their thrall, like how Latin America is to the US