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36 nos Rafales are a given . It should've been ordered long ago. Beyond that we'd have to rely on the IAF's judgement who think the Rafales are the only plane out there in our reach which can go up against the J-20 + J-16 combo.
Now we can sit & debate this till kingdom come but in the final analysis they're the experts & we've got to trust their judgement. Besides there's no other FA in our inventory which can go up against this combo.
The MKI in its present form is a bomb truck but it'd shine like a Christmas tree on the AESA radars . Unfortunately the Super Sukhoi upgrades will take their own sweet time to be realised in good numbers.
LCA Mk-1a is short legged , good enough for CAP . Ditto for Mirage 2000. Both of them have their utility as ambush FAs in the valleys of the huge mountains straddling the LAC . Hence they make good secondary FAs. The MiG-29s are the jokers in the pack .
But we need something to break open the barn door so to speak i.e for SEAD / DEAD missions in Tibet & Xinjiang thru the dense IADS network , ISR , Cyber Space , Refuellers , Satellite network , etc capabilities of the PLAAF & that'd be the Rafale + MKI combo.
Unfortunately once again we don't have the numbers. Given the fact that the PLAAF will field close to 1000 J-20s likely more & an equal number of J-16s by 2030 , even if they deploy a third in the WTC & surrounding theatres our goose is cooked.
Please note that all these arguments being circulated of the limitations of taking off from Tibet with a limited payload etc doesn't hold when you've a whole army of Refuellers who'd be flying over mid Tibet refuelling FAs to & from missions across the LAC.
That's what the PLAAF is practising intensely including taking off from Yunnan over Myanmar & BD to target our rear in the NE & Eastern sectors & from Yunnan over Myanmar & possibly Thailand to target the A & N islands & possibly our eastern coast.
Had there been no immediate threat from the Chinese , we could have gone for 36 nos Rafales & closed the chapter. The rest could be made up by the mid 2030s with the Mk-2 & the AMCA Mk-1 in addition to the 220 odd Mk-1a's .
That's not the case today & unfortunately there's no guarantee even if we sign the agreement for the remainder of the 36 nos Rafales of which in itself there's no guarantee we'd do it ASAP , we'd get the full complement before 2030 .
We lost crucial years between 2020-2022 which it turns out was due to a dispute over the mode of procurement , with the MoD / GoI insisting on piece meal acquisitions & ex ACM Chaudhari insisting on the tender & here we are.
I would dispute few of the points you have made.
--> "Given the fact that the PLAAF will field close to 1000 J-20s likely more & an equal number of J-16s by 2030."
This is impractical. USAF stopped production of F-22 at 180 and have never restarted production again. When they started F-35 they knew the costs would go through the roof. That is why they got other countries to partner in return for F-35 aircrafts. As I have mentioned before operating these stealth aircrafts are expensive. If you say money is not a big deal then I have other news for you. These aircrafts also need very intensive maintenance operations. For example, F-35 pilots are asked not to go supersonic because it erodes the Radar coating of the aircraft.
The Pentagon will have to live with limits on F-35’s supersonic flights
The Navy's and Marine Corps' versions of the F-35 will have restrictions on how long they can fly at supersonic speeds because of a risk of damage to the tail section.
www.defensenews.com
The same problems exist for F-22 albeit there is no restriction on going supersonic. But all stealth aircrafts face the same problem. You wanna go supersonic? Then get ready for RAM coating damage which increases the heat signature of aircraft.
J-20 is not a fully stealth aircraft like F-22. But I get the reason behind why they have designed it that way. Basically they wanted an aircraft which could cover entire Chinese mainland. So they designed a huge fighter aircraft even adding canards at the front to give it additional lift during take off at the cost of it's stealth signature. You bet maintaining J-20 would be even bigger nightmare than F-22 since it has more control surfaces.
-->Please note that all these arguments being circulated of the limitations of taking off from Tibet with a limited payload etc doesn't hold when you've a whole army of Refuellers who'd be flying over mid Tibet refuelling FAs to & from missions across the LAC.
Even with refueling aircraft they have to take off far away from high altitude regions and then fly close to nearby air bases to refuel the fighter aircrafts. This presents a logistical problem as fighters cannot engage in the battle until they are refueled. If you looked at locations of their airbases this is easier said than done. Their logistics of transporting food and fuel would be a nightmare in the high altitude regions. Bomb their railway tracks you are looking at their army and air force being cut off.
That being said I am attaching the links of few videos with wonderful analysis of this topic.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0wCt3cyQc&t=1s&ab_channel=Cybersurg
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ2fx4eicTk&t=1s&ab_channel=Cybersurg
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkA2rsEXLNI&ab_channel=Cybersurg