Indian Economy

[Nutcracker]

He is right if GDP Growth rate of 6% is considered.

Growth %	106
Year	GDP Tr.
2024	3.94
2025	4.18
2026	4.43
2027	4.69
2028	4.97
2029	5.27
2030	5.59
2031	5.92
2032	6.28
2033	6.66
2034	7.06
2035	7.48
2036	7.93
2037	8.40
2038	8.91
2039	9.44
2040	10.01
2041	10.61
2042	11.25
2043	11.92
2044	12.64
2045	13.39
2046	14.20
2047	15.05
2048	15.95
2049	16.91
2050	17.92

You are confusing real growth for nominal growth.

 

[sameer]

That's quite slow no, it's like what 5% real gdp growth rate ? Also end of next decade wtf, so like 2035-2040, How is it that slow, I can understand 10 trillion in maybe 2033-2035, but touching 2040 seriously?

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

 

[sameer]

USD vs other currencies.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

USD vs other currencies.

View attachment 21622

I have been hearing about that INR's true value is somewhere in the range of 90-95, If we assume USFED continues strengthening dollar, is 100 possible too ? Realistically growth should carry some inflation with it. But given our obsession with INR-USD rates, its upto leaderji about how he's going to handle narrative warfare that will be waged.

 

[Nibbler]

I have been hearing about that INR's true value is somewhere in the range of 90-95, If we assume USFED continues strengthening dollar, is 100 possible too ? Realistically growth should carry some inflation with it. But given our obsession with INR-USD rates, its upto leaderji about how he's going to handle narrative warfare that will be waged.

USFED hass been cutting rates. The bond market is the problem here, check their yields.

a super strong USD is in nobody's (includng the american) interest.

 

[crazywithmath]

Ya'll Blast from Past.

View attachment 21569

Then UPA happened.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

Discourse around economy and taxation is kinda retarded in India, you have people earning 20-50 LPA thinking they're middle class which is far from what data will tell you, "REAL" middle class that is earning 2.5 lap to like 10 lpa, believe it or not, has benefitted immensely from modi govt. going to fake post filled shitholes liker r/india on reddit, will make you think 15lpa is somehow not enough, which is non-sense majority of Indians live with half of that amount.

Reality is our TRP-khor media will never go into depth of economy policy, stuff like popcorn tax drama would have been avoided if econ-ministry has some staff dedicated to explaining why such tax actually exist, people will want super simple tax, which is impossible in pretty any country expect for like, tax-heavens or arab oil caliphates. Realistically we can make our country appear "richer" by simply cleaning our cities, which is more of a organizational issue than economic. lets hope motabhai does something good to dharavi.

 

[warriorextreme]

You are confusing real growth for nominal growth.
View attachment 21620

Yes, while calculating I have considered nominal GDP.

 

[crazywithmath]

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

USD vs other currencies.

View attachment 21622

True. INR stayed remarkably stable but Trump's election victory came out of syllabus. Once made a prediction at the old DFI (which I still stand by btw) that USDINR will probably never breach 100 and based it on a number of fundamentals. But USD will keep staying expensive (and overhyped) as long as the rest of the world keeps pouring their money into the American markets.

The short term US$ story is dependent on CNY btw.

 

[Nibbler]

Surely Fed will have to intervene at some point and start QE/bond buying

Can US govt really afford to be borrowing at 5% rates when their debt burden is already so massive