Indian Economy

[Nutcracker]

He is right if GDP Growth rate of 6% is considered.

Growth %	106
Year	GDP Tr.
2024	3.94
2025	4.18
2026	4.43
2027	4.69
2028	4.97
2029	5.27
2030	5.59
2031	5.92
2032	6.28
2033	6.66
2034	7.06
2035	7.48
2036	7.93
2037	8.40
2038	8.91
2039	9.44
2040	10.01
2041	10.61
2042	11.25
2043	11.92
2044	12.64
2045	13.39
2046	14.20
2047	15.05
2048	15.95
2049	16.91
2050	17.92

You are confusing real growth for nominal growth.

 

[sameer]

That's quite slow no, it's like what 5% real gdp growth rate ? Also end of next decade wtf, so like 2035-2040, How is it that slow, I can understand 10 trillion in maybe 2033-2035, but touching 2040 seriously?

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

 

[sameer]

USD vs other currencies.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

USD vs other currencies.

View attachment 21622

I have been hearing about that INR's true value is somewhere in the range of 90-95, If we assume USFED continues strengthening dollar, is 100 possible too ? Realistically growth should carry some inflation with it. But given our obsession with INR-USD rates, its upto leaderji about how he's going to handle narrative warfare that will be waged.

 

[Nibbler]

I have been hearing about that INR's true value is somewhere in the range of 90-95, If we assume USFED continues strengthening dollar, is 100 possible too ? Realistically growth should carry some inflation with it. But given our obsession with INR-USD rates, its upto leaderji about how he's going to handle narrative warfare that will be waged.

USFED hass been cutting rates. The bond market is the problem here, check their yields.

a super strong USD is in nobody's (includng the american) interest.

 

[crazywithmath]

Ya'll Blast from Past.

View attachment 21569

Then UPA happened.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

Discourse around economy and taxation is kinda retarded in India, you have people earning 20-50 LPA thinking they're middle class which is far from what data will tell you, "REAL" middle class that is earning 2.5 lap to like 10 lpa, believe it or not, has benefitted immensely from modi govt. going to fake post filled shitholes liker r/india on reddit, will make you think 15lpa is somehow not enough, which is non-sense majority of Indians live with half of that amount.

Reality is our TRP-khor media will never go into depth of economy policy, stuff like popcorn tax drama would have been avoided if econ-ministry has some staff dedicated to explaining why such tax actually exist, people will want super simple tax, which is impossible in pretty any country expect for like, tax-heavens or arab oil caliphates. Realistically we can make our country appear "richer" by simply cleaning our cities, which is more of a organizational issue than economic. lets hope motabhai does something good to dharavi.

 

[warriorextreme]

You are confusing real growth for nominal growth.
View attachment 21620

Yes, while calculating I have considered nominal GDP.

 

[crazywithmath]

With a nominal growth of ~10% it should happen by around 2035, assuming USD/INR doesn't depreciate to like 130 or something by that time.

But honestly, it's an utter waste of time to measure GDP in USD at this point, given that USD keeps appreciating for no reason at all. INR is doing decently well against other currencies.

Vishwaguru should abandon such things and instead specify the goals in Indian currency.

USD vs other currencies.

View attachment 21622

True. INR stayed remarkably stable but Trump's election victory came out of syllabus. Once made a prediction at the old DFI (which I still stand by btw) that USDINR will probably never breach 100 and based it on a number of fundamentals. But USD will keep staying expensive (and overhyped) as long as the rest of the world keeps pouring their money into the American markets.

The short term US$ story is dependent on CNY btw.

 

[Nibbler]

Surely Fed will have to intervene at some point and start QE/bond buying

Can US govt really afford to be borrowing at 5% rates when their debt burden is already so massive

 

[DivineHeretic]

Discourse around economy and taxation is kinda retarded in India, you have people earning 20-50 LPA thinking they're middle class which is far from what data will tell you, "REAL" middle class that is earning 2.5 lap to like 10 lpa, believe it or not, has benefitted immensely from modi govt. going to fake post filled shitholes liker r/india on reddit, will make you think 15lpa is somehow not enough, which is non-sense majority of Indians live with half of that amount.

Reality is our TRP-khor media will never go into depth of economy policy, stuff like popcorn tax drama would have been avoided if econ-ministry has some staff dedicated to explaining why such tax actually exist, people will want super simple tax, which is impossible in pretty any country expect for like, tax-heavens or arab oil caliphates. Realistically we can make our country appear "richer" by simply cleaning our cities, which is more of a organizational issue than economic. lets hope motabhai does something good to dharavi.

Ah, the classic “India is doing just fine, you’re all just whining” argument, now backed by the groundbreaking claim that anyone earning ₹20-50 LPA isn’t middle class. Bravo. Perhaps the definition of middle class has ascended to a higher plane of existence—one where owning a car, a home, and sending your kids to decent schools without collapsing under EMIs is considered indulgence. But let’s get to the facts, shall we?

Two-wheeler sales—a key indicator of middle-class discretionary spending—are still struggling to touch 2016 levels in 2024. Yes, in a country where two-wheelers are a stepping stone for economic mobility, that market has stagnated for nearly a decade. Meanwhile, entry-level car sales are practically on life support, with the average selling price of vehicles doubling in five years. This isn’t just inflation; it’s a sign that the lower and middle-middle classes are being priced out of upward mobility. But hey, let's pretend they've "benefitted immensely."



And let’s talk inflation—the elephant in the room that your optimism conveniently ignores. Real inflation for urban middle-class households has averaged well over 15% annually this decade, far outpacing the sanitized CPI figures the government loves to tout - rent, basic appliances-education expenses-travel-discretionary spending items. What ₹100 bought in 2014 now buys about ₹35 in 2024, but direct tax brackets haven’t been adjusted in a decade. Add indirect taxes to the mix ----oh what the hell nobody cares until the very floor falls out of India's growth story.

Now, for the pièce de résistance: the 20-50 LPA bracket. You mockingly claim they’re not middle class because they’re in the top 5%, but by every practical measure—owning a house, affording quality education, planning for retirement—they’re barely scraping by in urban centers - developed country expenses at Indian incomes and wealth - Sure sure - upper class - probably the country needs a primer on what middle class and upper classes mean from a fundamentals standpoint - and no - living in a rented home because afforable homes are 10-20x your annual income isnt by anyone's definition - upper class. This is the same group that props up much of India’s private consumption. The government’s tax revenue maximization strategy might make for short-term growth headlines, but it’s gutting the very segment that drives sustainable economic expansion.

But sure, let’s blame “popcorn tax drama” and focus on city cleanliness as the magic wand for economic prosperity. After all, it’s easier to distract with shiny streets than to address why wealth accumulation and upward mobility for the real middle class have stalled. Facts are stubborn things, and reality will find ways to intercept perceptions - oh who cares - certainly not BJP - definitely not Congress.

 

[ezsasa]

Ah, the classic “India is doing just fine, you’re all just whining” argument, now backed by the groundbreaking claim that anyone earning ₹20-50 LPA isn’t middle class. Bravo. Perhaps the definition of middle class has ascended to a higher plane of existence—one where owning a car, a home, and sending your kids to decent schools without collapsing under EMIs is considered indulgence. But let’s get to the facts, shall we?

Two-wheeler sales—a key indicator of middle-class discretionary spending—are still struggling to touch 2016 levels in 2024. Yes, in a country where two-wheelers are a stepping stone for economic mobility, that market has stagnated for nearly a decade. Meanwhile, entry-level car sales are practically on life support, with the average selling price of vehicles doubling in five years. This isn’t just inflation; it’s a sign that the lower and middle-middle classes are being priced out of upward mobility. But hey, let's pretend they've "benefitted immensely."

View attachment 21641

And let’s talk inflation—the elephant in the room that your optimism conveniently ignores. Real inflation for urban middle-class households has averaged well over 15% annually this decade, far outpacing the sanitized CPI figures the government loves to tout - rent, basic appliances-education expenses-travel-discretionary spending items. What ₹100 bought in 2014 now buys about ₹35 in 2024, but direct tax brackets haven’t been adjusted in a decade. Add indirect taxes to the mix ----oh what the hell nobody cares until the very floor falls out of India's growth story.

Now, for the pièce de résistance: the 20-50 LPA bracket. You mockingly claim they’re not middle class because they’re in the top 5%, but by every practical measure—owning a house, affording quality education, planning for retirement—they’re barely scraping by in urban centers - developed country expenses at Indian incomes and wealth - Sure sure - upper class - probably the country needs a primer on what middle class and upper classes mean from a fundamentals standpoint - and no - living in a rented home because afforable homes are 10-20x your annual income isnt by anyone's definition - upper class. This is the same group that props up much of India’s private consumption. The government’s tax revenue maximization strategy might make for short-term growth headlines, but it’s gutting the very segment that drives sustainable economic expansion.

But sure, let’s blame “popcorn tax drama” and focus on city cleanliness as the magic wand for economic prosperity. After all, it’s easier to distract with shiny streets than to address why wealth accumulation and upward mobility for the real middle class have stalled. Facts are stubborn things, and reality will find ways to intercept perceptions - oh who cares - certainly not BJP - definitely not Congress.

this would have been true if market fundamentals were exactly the same since 2014, which is not the case. products are not the only place money goes to, now there are more avenues for disposable cash can go to.

- online digital transactions have gone up
- retail equity has gone up
- retail mutual funds have gone up
- service providers like door delivery, transport etc. have gone up.

Retail investors’ mutual fund assets spiked nearly 50% in past one year: AMFI data​

https://www.livemint.com/mutual-fun...in-the-past-one-year-amfi-11729773126841.html

Indian stock market set for record yearly flows from retail investors​

https://www.business-standard.com/m...ows-from-retail-investors-124123000664_1.html

commercial sales and inflation account for GDP side of calculations, but equity and investments are not part of the GDP calculations.

for now, there does not seem to be enough comprehensive explanations on where disposable income is getting distributed over and above traditional sales trackers.

3 lakh crore = 1% of GDP nominal
1.7 lakh crore = 1% of GDP real

 

[Psacha123]

Surely Fed will have to intervene at some point and start QE/bond buying

Can US govt really afford to be borrowing at 5% rates when their debt burden is already so massive

Not gonna happen until another black swan event. We are living in unprecedented times amidst huge uncertainty.

- The FED’ preferred metric PCE is back on the rise.
- The Jobs report is still coming in strong questioning the need for more rate cuts.
- The markets earlier priced in 5 rate cuts this year. Now the forecast is a max of 2 cuts with some banks (BofA) even ruling out.
- They foolishly started with a 50bps cut (instead of 25) and the stock markets had a euphoric run since then with a lot of hope. The reasoning they gave was “jobs have slowed and we are heading to a 2% inflation”

Meanwhile,
- The FED pivot is as good as dead.
The market is fighting the FED as bond yields still surging despite the rate cuts resulting in huge dollar demand.
I think a 6% on 10Y will be the panic button.

Housing market is already going down as a result.

- Stocks and Crypto going up like no tomorrow.
- Gold is being bought like we are in a crisis while Dollar and 10Y is rallying. When was the last time this happened? Probably never.
- All this while inflation is back on the rise far from the 2% goal.
Something has to give in eventually.

And in China, the situation is even worse. The stocks is in a multi year bear market while the 10Y continues to crash further.
If you are a Chinese investor, where will you put your money?

So what does this mean for India?

2025 is probably going to be a period of huge volatility both in the markets and geopolitics.
So we just gotta ride it out and stop worrying about Rupee ‘crashing’.
India is in a far better position that most other major economies IMO.

 

[hurrians]

India Admits Gold Data Error That Pushed Trade Gap to Record

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-revises-trade-data-error-163125792.html

 

[shuturmurg]

India Admits Gold Data Error That Pushed Trade Gap to Record

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-revises-trade-data-error-163125792.html

India's economy and trade policy is on auto-pilot and fully under control of babus. Our ministers in this govt. are just mukhoutas it seems. UPA ministers used to control everything ,specially people like Chidambaram, but their policies were wrong.
NDA seems to be on babu autopilot.

 

[why so serious?]

There's this company called Deepak Chemtech, they recently bought out the assets, trademarks as well as licenses of a German company(Trinseo). Using that tech, they're planning to build a massive polycarbonate resin plant in Dahej Gujrat.

Germany has a lot of expertise in traditional industries esp chemicals and metallurgy. They're no longer able to manufacture them at economical rates due to Pootin turing off the cheap gas.

Our dhandhos should look into acquiring these companies and their IP's and set up plants here.

Deepak Chem Tech to acquire Polycarbonate Assets of Trinseo at Germany

Deepak Chem Tech Ltd, a subsidiary of Deepak Nitrite, will invest $600 million in a polycarbonate project at Dahej, Gujarat, producing 165,000 MT by Q4 FY 2028. It has partnered...

www.fibre2fashion.com

A lot of German companies are on sale due to economical and ecological reasons.

Chinese have bought out quite a few but still there is scope for India Inc.

Borosil bought out a german co. GMB interfloat ( 100% stake) Specialist in solar glass manufacturing infact Europes largest with annual revenue of euro 50 mil. for around Euro 25 mil. This was in 2022 , now they are cooling off their furnace in Germany and setting up a plant in India to manufacture solar glass . A product that is dominated and dumped by the chinese in India.

Got the IP and expertise of operating a solar glass manufacturing furnace for Euro 25 Million.

 

[crazywithmath]

Ah, the classic “India is doing just fine, you’re all just whining” argument, now backed by the groundbreaking claim that anyone earning ₹20-50 LPA isn’t middle class.

They aren't 'middle class' by definition. What %ile do you think they fall in?

Bravo. Perhaps the definition of middle class has ascended to a higher plane of existence—one where owning a car, a home, and sending your kids to decent schools without collapsing under EMIs is considered indulgence. But let’s get to the facts, shall we?

That was facts only.

Two-wheeler sales—a key indicator of middle-class discretionary spending—are still struggling to touch 2016 levels in 2024.

Two wheeler sales are indicators of purchasing dynamics across rural and lower/lower middle income dynamics. And they haven't done that well (something reflected in FMCG sales too) and the gormint has been lambasted for their tight fispol on this very thread for it.

Yes, in a country where two-wheelers are a stepping stone for economic mobility, that market has stagnated for nearly a decade. Meanwhile, entry-level car sales are practically on life support, with the average selling price of vehicles doubling in five years. This isn’t just inflation; it’s a sign that the lower and middle-middle classes are being priced out of upward mobility. But hey, let's pretend they've "benefitted immensely."

View attachment 21641

And let’s talk inflation—the elephant in the room that your optimism conveniently ignores. Real inflation for urban middle-class households has averaged well over 15% annually this decade, far outpacing the sanitized CPI figures the government loves to tout

I am sorry but this is just cope. You are coming up with arbitrary definitions of 'inflation' to peddle your agenda. Heck, CPI would look even more moderate if weightage on food items are corrected.

- rent, basic appliances-education expenses-travel-discretionary spending items. What ₹100 bought in 2014 now buys about ₹35 in 2024, but direct tax brackets haven’t been adjusted in a decade. Add indirect taxes to the mix ----oh what the hell nobody cares until the very floor falls out of India's growth story.

Now, for the pièce de résistance: the 20-50 LPA bracket. You mockingly claim they’re not middle class because they’re in the top 5%, but by every practical measure—owning a house, affording quality education, planning for retirement—they’re barely scraping by in urban centers - developed country expenses at Indian incomes and wealth - Sure sure - upper class - probably the country needs a primer on what middle class and upper classes mean from a fundamentals standpoint - and no - living in a rented home because afforable homes are 10-20x your annual income isnt by anyone's definition - upper class. This is the same group that props up much of India’s private consumption. The government’s tax revenue maximization strategy might make for short-term growth headlines, but it’s gutting the very segment that drives sustainable economic expansion.

But sure, let’s blame “popcorn tax drama” and focus on city cleanliness as the magic wand for economic prosperity. After all, it’s easier to distract with shiny streets than to address why wealth accumulation and upward mobility for the real middle class have stalled. Facts are stubborn things, and reality will find ways to intercept perceptions - oh who cares - certainly not BJP - definitely not Congress.

This thread has citicized the strategy of 'short term revenuemaxxing' too, btw.

 

[haldilal]

 

[ezsasa]

India's economy and trade policy is on auto-pilot and fully under control of babus. Our ministers in this govt. are just mukhoutas it seems. UPA ministers used to control everything ,specially people like Chidambaram, but their policies were wrong.
NDA seems to be on babu autopilot.

kuch bhi, plenty used to happen. public has a short memory and there was no SM then for public to obsess about unless something is reported in the news. this is why RTI activists used to be a big deal.

https://www.business-standard.com/a...-trade-data-discrepancies-113072100216_1.html

and one of the most famous example

Indian railways makes $4.5 bln profit in 2006/07​

https://www.reuters.com/article/bus...s-makes-45-bln-profit-in-200607-idUSBOM91144/

Indian Railways still coping with Lalu Prasad's myth of "cash surplus"​

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/when-railway-s-surplus-vanished-on-closer-scrutiny-looking-back-116022500895_1.html

 

[crazywithmath]