China and its recent friendly gesture to India
Beware of China’s “friendship”—history shows a pattern of deception. From Qin Shi Huang’s reign around 200 BC, China’s leaders have often paired diplomatic gestures with covert conquests. This trend persisted, with Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai outwardly promoting peace with India’s Nehru at the 1955 Bandung Conference, only to start encroaching on Indian territory shortly afterward, continuing in 1962, 1976, 1986, and 2020. Each incursion met resistance, often over desolate high-altitude snowy peaks.
In 2020, India responded with military strength, forcing China to retreat from several contested areas, though two locations remained unresolved. Now, China has unexpectedly vacated these spots, allowing India to control some previously contested heights. This sudden shift raises questions: what might China’s real motives be?
Is China’s recent concession a sign of ill intent, or is it struggling to manage multiple confrontations with its neighbors?
China’s ongoing military standoffs with Taiwan and the U.S., the Philippines, and India are stretching its resources, compounded by an economic slowdown fueled by rapid expansion in housing, infrastructure, military spending, and $10 trillion in debt. Sluggish demand for Chinese goods has led to slower growth, akin to Japan’s economic stagnation. Despite President Xi Jinping’s efforts, the crisis persists. The Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy hinges on economic prosperity, so economic decline risks sparking internal unrest. Facing these challenges, Xi appears to be reducing external conflicts, prioritizing a settlement with India over disputed territories. Recently, China vacated two contested choke points, giving India strategic control over the area.
India welcomed the move, establishing control over the high ground. A broader Chinese withdrawal could lead to mutual military reductions and improved peace prospects. Yet, China’s approach to “peace” is often ambiguous, given its history of blending diplomacy with deception. India should not let down its guard along the LAC; while troops may pull back, they should maintain a verifiable surveillance system. Until final agreements are reached, India will continue fortifying its border infrastructure, keeping its defenses strong and ready.
