Indus water treaty

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I queried all the AI bot platform about the projects running in JnK on all rivers. iI found the best result from ChatGPT:

Chenab River Projects​

India has been actively developing several hydro projects on the Chenab, including:

  1. Baglihar Dam (Jammu & Kashmir)
    • Completed in two phases (2008 & 2015).
    • 900 MW capacity.
    • Was challenged by Pakistan under the IWT; the World Bank-appointed neutral expert allowed it with minor design changes.
  2. Ratle Hydroelectric Project
    • Under construction (850 MW).
    • Located in Kishtwar district, J&K.
    • Faced delays due to political and environmental concerns.
  3. Pakaldul Hydroelectric Project
    • 1,000 MW capacity.
    • One of the largest under-construction hydro projects on a western river.
    • Pakistan has objected due to storage concerns.
  4. Kiru & Kwar Projects
    • Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), both part of the Chenab Valley power development.
    • Under construction or in planning stages.


Jhelum River Projects​

  1. Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project
    • Located in Bandipora district, J&K.
    • 330 MW capacity.
    • Diverts water from a tributary of the Jhelum to another tributary (Neelum), affecting Pakistan's downstream Neelum-Jhelum project.
    • Was the subject of international arbitration; India was allowed to proceed with restrictions.
  2. Lower Jhelum, Uri-I & Uri-II Hydroelectric Projects
    • Located in Baramulla district.
    • Uri-I (480 MW), Uri-II (240 MW).
    • Operational.


Indus River Projects​


India’s direct projects on the main Indus are fewer, as it primarily flows through Ladakh and then into Pakistan. However:
  • Nimoo Bazgo (45 MW) and Dumkhar (42 MW) on the Indus in Ladakh are operational.
  • India is exploring new storage and hydropower potential in Ladakh post-2019 developments.
 
Beside these, on Ravi we have:

1. Shahpurkandi Dam started working in 2024 - redirecting water to Indian channel and limiting to Pakistan

2. Ujh Dam is in planning stage
 
@ezsasa @Azaad @crazywithmath

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  • India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty aims to pressure Pakistan, but a water blockade remains impractical for now.
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Limited Options For Immediate Impact

India’s suspension of the IWT has fuelled expectations of choking Pakistan’s water supply, but practical constraints make this challenging in the short to medium term.

The Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—account for over 80 per cent (117 BCM) of the Indus basin’s annual flow, forming the backbone of Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly in Punjab. However, the geography and topography of these rivers severely restrict India’s ability to construct large-scale storage or reservoirs.

The Indus and Chenab rivers flow through steep, narrow gorges in the Himalayan region, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, where the terrain is characterized by high gradients and rocky landscapes. These conditions make it technically unfeasible to construct large reservoirs capable of holding substantial volumes of water, as flat land for such projects is scarce and the geological stability of the region is precarious.

For instance, the Indus River’s upper reaches in Ladakh are confined to deep valleys, rendering dam construction costly and risky due to potential seismic activity.

The Jhelum River, while having a milder gradient in the Kashmir valley, presents its own challenges: any large reservoir would inundate vast areas of fertile land and densely populated regions, such as Srinagar, causing catastrophic damage, displacing communities and submerging critical infrastructure—an unacceptable cost.
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Public demands to stop water flows to Pakistan overlook the scale of such an endeavor.

Since India already utilizes nearly all Eastern River flows, any blockade would involve restricting the Western Rivers’ 117 BCM. This could be achieved by storing the water or diverting the rivers, but both options are logistically and financially daunting.

Storing 117 BCM annually would require monumental infrastructure. This volume could inundate 120,000 square kilometers to a depth of one meter each year, equivalent to flooding the entire Kashmir Valley to seven meters in a single year.

In reservoir terms, it would necessitate at least 30 reservoirs the size of the Tehri Dam, which holds 4 BCM. Constructing a single Tehri-sized dam takes a decade, so even if India began building 30 reservoirs immediately, impoundment would not start for at least another 10 to 12 years, leaving Pakistan unaffected in the interim.

Finding land for such reservoirs in the densely populated Himalayan region is nearly impossible
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Diverting Western Rivers Is Equally Impractical

Diverting the western rivers to alternative destinations is equally impractical due to geographical realities. Redirecting even one river, such as the Chenab, would require constructing a man-made channel spanning hundreds of kilometers across rugged Himalayan terrain, crossing multiple river basins, and navigating elevation changes.

Such a project would demand unprecedented engineering feats, would cost billions of dollars, necessitate acquiring thousands of hectares of land in densely populated or ecologically sensitive areas, that would face insurmountable challenges.
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Most importantly, any such project would take decades to complete. Navigating the bureaucratic maze of approvals, addressing protests, and managing the environmental fallout would delay progress. Even with a concerted national effort, the sheer scale of the undertaking—spanning planning, construction, and stabilisation—would stretch across decades, leaving Pakistan’s water supply unaffected for generations.

Fast-tracking run-of-the-river dams or small storages could enhance India’s water utilisation but would not significantly reduce Pakistan’s supply for decades.
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But India’s lack of a cohesive strategy for western river development, coupled with a cautious approach to avoid escalation in the previous decades, has left it unprepared to swiftly capitalise on the IWT’s suspension, further limiting its options.

For instance, the treaty allows India to develop run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects and limited storage facilities, capped at 3.6 million acre-feet, on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
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However, India has significantly underutilised these entitlements due to a combination of Pakistan’s technical objections, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a lack of planning despite the rhetoric. As of 2023, India has irrigated only 642,000 acres in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, far below the 1.34 million acres allowed by the treaty.

India’s suspension of the IWT may have bolstered its diplomatic position, but the stark reality is that disrupting Pakistan’s water supply remains unattainable for now.
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concard said:
I have been reading shit loads of your comments since morning. Most of you guys are high on something. The mature ones who are old members here are analyzing practical things which can be done to hurt subhumans across the border. Don't waste the bandwidth to simply criticize GoI, giving history gyaan etc. We know all that. Before you call me Modi critic, let me tell you I am his supporter as well as his critic.

Now back in 2019, Pulwama attack took place on Feb 14th 2019. However, our response came after nearly 2 weeks that is on Feb 26th midnight. You do not know what is cooking in the power corridors of Delhi. So don't act like spoiled teenagers asking for military action right now. There has to be a element of surprise behind every attack. Porki scum have their aircrafts running since the attack, it will wear them out if they keep doing it for another week or so.

With respect to IWT, if your blood boils for still not stopping rivers flowing into Porkistan. Imagine before Modi, nearly 100% of the IWT was flowing to that scummy country. We were not even utilizing our own share let alone block other rivers. Now the positive thing is our share is being fully utilized now since we have built dams to divert our share. What is required is to divert others. According to @haldilal except Indus all other rivers can be diverted by the end of this decade.
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You can divert indus too as i pointed out. Only difference here is, diversion can only go to central Asia via Pangong Tso as its near focal point for 50% or so if Indus's flow , because it is near focal point of both indus itself and the mighty shyok, which is more volumnious than indus before confluence. Pangong tso to Kunlun is a long but not gradient-wise difficult canal to cut as it will follow mostly flat tibet route. do this and china will be onboard - as i noted earlier, China cannot do this on its own due to geography- pangong-tso is only connectable to both indus and shyok inside indian territory.

but question is, is taking Indus away from Pakis and giving it to China a winning move overall or not.
On one hand, it DEFINITELY kills pakistan. Western problem solved to a near civilizational scale.
But on the other hand, it definitely withers wesern indian subcontinent as Indus is the biggest flowing individual river. And it gives China a huge boost in central Asia.

But yes, even this angle, is more 'murrica super powwa + crazy Donuld trumpwa' type of thinking move in geo-political scope.
I am simply pointing out, the geographical practicalities of IF the indus is divertable or not and if so, where : seeing topological map - this is the only way i can think of.
 
dumdumdum said:
Indian Awaam is amazing.
Till Indus Water Treaty is not touched, why is it not touched
When it is touched , Meh ..no big deal ..its nothing
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Let them build infra on war basis and actually starve Pak of water and Awam will appreciate.

Till then it's another jumla like CAA, NRC i.e promise big and then don't deliver and move on.
 
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