AMCA - Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft

[Hawkeye]

True, any possible enlargement can happen in mk2 or mk3 variant. We need to roll out mk1 asap.

And need I say we need to work on AHCA or whatever like J36. Chinese are managing four 5 or 5+gen (yeah, I refuse to call them 6th) fighters j20, j35, J36 and j50, fricking mental my guys.

 

[Kontakt5]

True, any possible enlargement can happen in mk2 or mk3 variant. We need to roll out mk1 asap.

And need I say we need to work on AHCA or whatever like J36. Chinese are managing four 5 or 5+gen (yeah, I refuse to call them 6th) fighters j20, j35, J36 and j50, fricking mental my guys.

It's fine to not acknowledge the generation as it is marketing, but not to dismiss their capabilities. The J-36 and J-50 timelines seem to be along the same lines as GCAP, and NGAD. It would make no sense to induct an aircraft with capabilities of the J-20 when China's opponents are inducting aircraft meant to serve as a replacement to the F-35 and F-22.

It's far more important for the IAF babus to recognize this development and not drag their feet on AMCA mk2 and 6th gen aircraft development. I remember some years ago the J-20 was being touted as a '4.5 gen' equivalent by the globe, not just IAF. But as the USA slowly started to acknowledge the Chinese threat, the global opinion shifted as well. It's best not to repeat mistakes over, better to overestimate the threat, and create a superior aircraft after all.

 

[Pundit Pikachu]

It's fine to not acknowledge the generation as it is marketing, but not to dismiss their capabilities. The J-36 and J-50 timelines seem to be along the same lines as GCAP, and NGAD. It would make no sense to induct an aircraft with capabilities of the J-20 when China's opponents are inducting aircraft meant to serve as a replacement to the F-35 and F-22.

It's far more important for the IAF babus to recognize this development and not drag their feet on AMCA mk2 and 6th gen aircraft development. I remember some years ago the J-20 was being touted as a '4.5 gen' equivalent by the globe, not just IAF. But as the USA slowly started to acknowledge the Chinese threat, the global opinion shifted as well. It's best not to repeat mistakes over, better to overestimate the threat, and create a superior aircraft after all.

So here's what I think is going to happen
We will induct some 80 AMCA mk 1 powered by F414 (admittedly less advanced than F35 or J 35 but 5th gen nonetheless)
These will be Single Seater jets with standard 5th gen features like IWB, EOTS etc
Timelines would be 2032-2037

By this time our 120kn JV engine would be ready and a enlarged/modified AMCA mk 2 would go in production with then.
These will be 5.5 gen Dual Seater Jets with some 6th gen features like Loyal Wingman, High Data Fusion etc.
These Aircrafts would be similar to French FCAS, just somewhat smaller
Timelines would be 2038- 2042
Some 120 Aircraft would be Inducted

 

[Kontakt5]

So here's what I think is going to happen
We will induct some 80 AMCA mk 1 powered by F414 (admittedly less advanced than F35 or J 35 but 5th gen nonetheless)
These will be Single Seater jets with standard 5th gen features like IWB, EOTS etc
Timelines would be 2032-2037

By this time our 120kn JV engine would be ready and a enlarged/modified AMCA mk 2 would go in production with then.
These will be 5.5 gen Dual Seater Jets with some 6th gen features like Loyal Wingman, High Data Fusion etc.
These Aircrafts would be similar to French FCAS, just somewhat smaller
Timelines would be 2038- 2042
Some 120 Aircraft would be Inducted

Currently I'm shaky on the AMCA Mk 1 timeline. If all goes well and AMCA first test flight is seen in 2027, ill be confident in a 2033-2034 induction. But if there are delays, as with the IAF things will be pushed back to likely the 2035-2037 timeline. The IAF must make sure this absolutely is not the case, Mk1 induction this late can not be afforded.

I also believe a much larger order needs to be in place for both Mk 1 and Mk 2. Larger orders means that HAL can better work with economies of scale, and the air forces of 2035 will be vastly larger in stealth capabilities. By 2035 the USA plans to have in total 2,300 F-35's in service. China is trying to match the USA, I won't be at all surprised if China by 2035 has a total of 1800-2000 stealth fighter platforms. India can absolutely not drag their feet, I think AMCA order should be near 500 at least.

 

[Pundit Pikachu]

Currently I'm shaky on the AMCA Mk 1 timeline. If all goes well and AMCA first test flight is seen in 2027, ill be confident in a 2033-2034 induction. But if there are delays, as with the IAF things will be pushed back to likely the 2035-2037 timeline. The IAF must make sure this absolutely is not the case, Mk1 induction this late can not be afforded.

IAF has no other choice, it can not afford any delays so it doesn't matter if AMCA comes out as a three legged cheetah or a 4 legged tiger, its the only option IAF has so it will have to expedite the process and Induct AMCA as soon as possible, I think Mk 1 IOC will be inducted in the Airforce with a contract that they can later be upgraded to FOC standard.
And most likely this IOC standard will only be useful for Air to Air Role Similar to KF 21 Borame.

Unless Vishwagorrila India's Mahamanv Prime Minister Mr Maulana Modi wisen up and double the budget for the program and allow the money to flow more freely plus increase the number of Prototype to hasten up the testing procedure this is most optimistic timeline I can think of.

Because F35 is not an option either US will not loosen up its control on F 35 and we will not give up our strategic autonomy, not to mention I very much doubt that next US government would even be willing to offer F 35 to us, to put it simply we have shot ourselves in the foot with the S400, so yeah either we get AMCA or we don't get anything at all.

I also believe a much larger order needs to be in place for both Mk 1 and Mk 2. Larger orders means that HAL can better work with economies of scale, and the air forces of 2035 will be vastly larger in stealth capabilities. By 2035 the USA plans to have in total 2,300 F-35's in service. China is trying to match the USA, I won't be at all surprised if China by 2035 has a total of 1800-2000 stealth fighter platforms. India can absolutely not drag their feet, I think AMCA order should be near 500 at least.

The number of Mk 1 would be decided by how fast can AMCA mk 2 be fielded, if its 5 years then 80 it is, if its more than that then more Mk1 will follow.
AMCA Mk2's numbers however would be more interesting 120 is the minimum it can go upto 240 or even more for all we know

 

[Spitfire IX]

Enlarging the AMCA airframe at this stage would be a very bad example of mission creep. To enlarge the design airframe by 15% when prototype fabrication is already ongoing could delay the entire program by half a decade or more.

IMO in those circumstances you might as well scrap the AMCA programme as is and start a revised programme aiming at EIS 2045+ with an Indian engine.

 

[Bhartiya Sainik]

By this time our 120kn JV engine would be ready and a enlarged/modified AMCA mk 2 would go in production with then.
These will be 5.5 gen Dual Seater Jets with some 6th gen features like Loyal Wingman, High Data Fusion etc.

> World is racing for AI/ML including India & IAF has indicated R&D into it also.
But even w/o AI/ML also, WSO is not required to control UCAVs. The pilot can do it by on screen or an extra tab/pad strapped to his/her thigh, even by voice input.
> Even for training, 2nd cockpit is not required like for F-22/35.
> That precious space can be used for at least 1 ton of fuel.

And most likely this IOC standard will only be useful for Air to Air Role Similar to KF 21 Borame

> KF-21 w/o 4gen like skin & w/o IWB is inferior to even current AMCA config with IWB which can house bombs like SAAW, etc.
> 10 years of induction time remaining is a huge time for sincere people, provided fund, facilities, people are sufficient.
> Different sub-teams work on different components.
> It doesn't take monumental effort to integrate S/w module into avionics for drop & forget smart bombs, to such an extent that it'll create huge gap of years b/w AMCA Mk1 & MLUed Mk2.
> Even the EOTS can be implemented in IOC itself.
> Also the HMDS.

We can't afford to act lazy & say that AMCA Mk2 coming in 2045 or Mk3 in 2055 will be true FOC complete 5gen jet.

If Tata, Ambani, Adani, etc won't get into aviation R&D, well, someone will definitely do it someday. Aerospace start-ups have started.
Any experienced professional adult who understand diff. b/w Govt. job & private job would understand that If we had private firms like LM, NG, Boeing, then ADA would face tough competition.