Rahul Gandhi's Unexpected Crawl Back to Partial Success
Following the recent parliamentary elections, there is a narrative that the Congress Party has triumphed and that Rahul Gandhi is a prime minister in waiting. However, with 99 seats compared to the BJP's 240, this is far from true. While the opposition alliance has gained ground and come back to life, the Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi have a long way to go. Yet the party's resources have projected him as successful, although other INDI Alliance leaders like Mamata Banerjee are unhappy about it. Nevertheless, some credit is due to Rahul Gandhi.
Did Rahul Gandhi win anything?
Not significantly, except for reclaiming his family's seat in Uttar Pradesh, which he had previously lost. He collaborated with other leftist parties, securing 6 out of 80 seats. The real winner in Uttar Pradesh is SP's Akhilesh Yadav, who captured 37 seats compared to BJP's 33. This success was driven by the combined votes of Muslims and OBCs. Muslims traditionally do not vote for BJP, and OBCs were persuaded that a BJP majority would threaten their constitutional reservations. This SP narrative resonated with the OBC voters, better.
What happened elsewhere?
Many parties opposing BJP are family enterprises. The Congress Party is a Nehru family enterprise; SP in Uttar Pradesh is led by the Mulayam Singh family; RJD in Bihar is controlled by the Lalu Yadav family; DMK in Tamil Nadu is managed by the Karunanidhi family; and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra (before the split) is a Thackeray family enterprise.
These parties hold significant influence over local voters, addressing issues like inflation and youth unemployment—problems that are not easily solved without attracting substantial business investments (the BJP's platform). Rahul Gandhi's promise of INR 100,000 annually to women also played a significant role.
BJP remained confident that their focus on industrial development, infrastructure, and Modi's popularity would attract voters. However, the election results indicate this strategy had limited success.
Where did BJP succeed?
BJP swept a full house in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. In Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Delhi, and other regions, they won close to the whole house. However, they did not perform well in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal. Overall, they succeeded in 240 seats. Their major loss was in Uttar Pradesh, where successful misinformation campaigns cost them ground.
What should we expect next?
There is a distinct possibility that the NDA alliance, which includes BJP and other parties, might face internal conflicts, potentially leading to some partners leaving the alliance. This could threaten the stability of the Modi government. However, this scenario is unlikely. On the other hand, the Congress Party's alliance is a loosely-knit group of diverse, dynastic parties with differing objectives, united primarily to oust BJP. This scenario is more likely to happen, ensuring the survival of the Modi government, though BJP’s economic agenda may suffer due to a lack of a strong majority. Alternatively, unhappy Congress Party allies may opt out of the INDI Alliance and send feelers to join the NDA. That possibility is more likely to happen than not.
In short Rahul Gandhi’s unexpected crawl back to power as leader of the opposition is highly appreciated but how long can he keep the diverse alliance together in an unknown factor.
sabka kiss-ass will continue.. 
