Every single institution that receives monies from gormint must have afsars, must have quotas and thus will have sarkari work culture.
Want a gormint mukt sports you have to raise your own fund.
You have medallists cuz of govt money only; it is them who brough TOPS and Khelo India - private contributions are secondary only.
Either way, I projected 10-12 medals for us back in July on the Olympics bid thread; which (if not for so many 4th place, SF, QF exits, injuries and Vinesh Phogat like incidents) were pretty spot on I think.
One caveat is that I based my projections on the international performances of our athletes in the run up to the games - which did not necessarily reflect in Paris. One possible reason is that, a majority of our contenders were pretty inexperienced - some in their early 20s, a lot of teenagers even and hence, faltered in the concluding stages.
You need veterans to win medals in an event like the Olympics. Look at Manu Bhaker - she was a medal contender in Tokyo too but crumbled under pressure. She was brutally trolled and abused on SM (because media built massive hype around her in the lead up to the games) but learnt from her mistakes and came to understand what it took to compete on a big stage. Cut to Paris, she is a double medallist and narrowly missed out on a third medal.
Another example would be Mirabai Chanu - who is past her prime and have been battling one injury after another for the past few years. She barely competed in the past 1-1.5 years but came back in time for Paris and almost managed to medal despite not being at her physical best.
Our hockey contingent had an inconsistent season in the run up to the Paris Games, even mediocre teams like GB were scoring 3, 4, 5 past us; the Aussies handed a 0-5 whitewash in bilateral series and Fulton's defense first hockey style came under heavy criticism. Heck, I was watching pre Games projections and they did not even expect us to go past QF. And yet, at Paris 2024, when it mattered the most they were beating Aus, GB (with 10 men), Spain etc with relative ease. It happened because the squad boasted of veterans like PR Sreejesh, Manpreet and Harmanpreet who knew what it took to turn up on the biggest stage of them all.
Vinesh Phogat, nowadays a part time politician and forced to compete in 50 kg by Antim Panghal (who refused to vacate her 53 kg quota), managed to win an Oly quota through the Asian qualifiers despite barely competing in the international circuit for over a year. She was getting tech-ed by chinese wrestlers in ranking series. And yet, at Paris, she knocked out the invincible Yui Susaki and made it to the gold medal bout. With a competent nutritionist she would have returned with our first ever wrestling gold. Again, she could do it because she has medalled at multiple worlds, Asian tourneys (often demolishing gold medal contenders for fun) and had what it took to win bouts despite not being anywhere near her prime.
The athletes who have narrowly missed out on medals (almost all in their early 20s) will learn from it and medal in future events. There is almost no difference between a medallist and a 4th place/SF/QF finisher - it all comes down to experience and finesse. Not everyone is a Neeraj Chopra or Aman Sehrawat who can medal in their maiden games.
If our sporting system were so shit (as implied by the armchair youtubers/journalists and resident bhosdapillers at DFB) these athletes would not even come so close to medalling and neither would we finish 4th on the Asian Games medal tally. We have never had so many athletes so close to podium finishes in any of the previous games.
Lastly, this "1.6 billion people with 6-7 medals" argument is BS. Population alone has no correlation with sporting success - so many examples to prove that (spoiler: sporting success is a function of GDP per capita, state capacity and population).
We have an amazing wrestling programme - they even became the women's team champion at the u20 worlds (defeating Japan and the US). In 57 kg FS alone, the top 3 wrestlers in the world are all gonna be Indians (Ravi dahiya, Aman Sehrawat and Udit). Also, some potential monsters in 65 kg FS (Sujeet Kalkal) and 74 kg FS (Jaideep/Sagar). The recent gun law amendments have made sport shooting a mass sport and created insane depth at u20 level. These sports will keep on giving.
To those bhosdapilled by incels and edgy armchair journalists (who barely follow Olympic sports in non Olympic events) - remember chinkus did not win a single Olympic medal before 1984.